Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Pop Mart’s total revenue increased by 62% YoY due to the promising overseas market.</li>
<li>Tongcheng’ revenue grew by 48% YoY in 2Q24, as new businesses are successful.</li>
<li>Alibaba’s Freshippo plans to set up frontline warehouses, which is a way back to online.</li>
</ul>


Pop Mart’s total revenue increased by 62% YoY due to the promising overseas market.
Tongcheng’ revenue grew by 48% YoY in 2Q24, as new businesses are successful.
Alibaba’s Freshippo plans to set up frontline warehouses, which is a way back to online.


China Consumption Weekly (26Aug2024): 2Q24 Rev Up By - PopMart 62%, Zeekr 58%, Tongcheng 48%, Etc.

Xiaomi Corporation manufactures communication equipment and parts. The Company produces and sells mobile phones, smart phone software,  set-top boxes, and related accessories. Xiaomi markets its products worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Excluding the new business electrical vehicle, total revenue increased by 23% YoY in 2Q24.</li>
<li>Smartphone shipments grew faster than Samsung and Apple in 2Q24.</li>
<li>We believe electrical vehicle will bring significant gross profit in following two years.</li>
</ul>


Excluding the new business electrical vehicle, total revenue increased by 23% YoY in 2Q24.
Smartphone shipments grew faster than Samsung and Apple in 2Q24.
We believe electrical vehicle will bring significant gross profit in following two years.


Xiaomi (1810 HK): 2Q24, Revenue up by 32%, Electric Vehicle Profit to Follow, Buy

Kuaishou Technology operates as a content community and social platform. The Company helps users create, upload and watch short videos on mobile devices. Kuaishou Technology offers services worldwide.

<ul>
<li>The gross margin improved 5 pp (percentage points) YoY and the operating margin improved 7 pp YoY in 2Q24.</li>
<li>In 2Q24, total revenue grew by 12% YoY, with the main business up by 22% YoY.</li>
<li>Three cross-sectional comparisons reach similar stock upsides about 100%. Buy.</li>
</ul>


The gross margin improved 5 pp (percentage points) YoY and the operating margin improved 7 pp YoY in 2Q24.
In 2Q24, total revenue grew by 12% YoY, with the main business up by 22% YoY.
Three cross-sectional comparisons reach similar stock upsides about 100%. Buy.


KS / Kuaishou (1024 HK): 2Q24, Significant Margin Improvement and 100% Stock Upside

<ul>
<li>China Literature’s revenue increased by 28% YoY in 1H24, because four novel copyrights for movies brought box office hits.</li>
<li>KE revenue increased by 20% YoY in 2Q24 compared with a 19% YoY decrease in 1Q24, as government policies supported existing home transaction.</li>
<li>Alibaba announced that it will recruit 1,000 fresh graduates for tech positions in 2025.</li>
</ul>


China Literature’s revenue increased by 28% YoY in 1H24, because four novel copyrights for movies brought box office hits.
KE revenue increased by 20% YoY in 2Q24 compared with a 19% YoY decrease in 1Q24, as government policies supported existing home transaction.
Alibaba announced that it will recruit 1,000 fresh graduates for tech positions in 2025.


China Consumption Weekly (19Aug2024): China Literature, BEKE, Alibaba, JD, JD Health, Tencent Music

<ul>
<li>Alibaba’s revenue grew by 4% YoY in 1Q25 due to the stagnancy in e-commerce.</li>
<li>However, many expansion plans follow, including overseas market, physical stores, and fresh food wholesale.</li>
<li>We set an upside of 51% and a price target of HK$115 for March 2025.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba’s revenue grew by 4% YoY in 1Q25 due to the stagnancy in e-commerce.
However, many expansion plans follow, including overseas market, physical stores, and fresh food wholesale.
We set an upside of 51% and a price target of HK$115 for March 2025.


Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA): 1Q25, Growth Lower Than Expectation, But Many Expansion Plans Following

A veteran with 19-year experience in equity research.

Geographical coverage:
* Companies operating in China, but listed in Hong Kong and the U.S.
* Previously China A-share (listed in mainland China).

Equity sector coverage:
* Chinese App / Internet-based consumption in China, e.g., Alibaba, Tencent, etc.
* Previously covered education, transportation, telecom, power, bank, advertisement, hotel, etc.

Research methods:
* Generally bottom-up.
* Talk to related people on the ground.  Talk to readers and independent writers for analyzing a news portal.  Talk to parents and teachers for analyzing a tutoring school. 
* Visit stores and show photos as evidence in notes.
* Do technical analysis when finding a short-seller attacking an equity.

Languages:
* English
* Mandarin Chinese (Official language of China)
* Shanghainese (Language of Shanghai, the most developed city in China)
* Cantonese (Language of Hong Kong and Canton Province, one of the most developed provinces in China)