bullish
You Think The Labor Market Is Hot? Think Again
SUMMARY
- Especially at turning points, looking beyond the main headlines in macro data can make the difference in understanding where do we really stand in the macro cycle.
- The last US payroll report was tagged as very strong - but if you look deeper you realize the current state of the US labor market is far from ‘‘hot’’.
- Job creation is clearly trending down, alternative real-time and forward-looking labor market indicators point to a sharp deterioration ahead and statistical inconsistencies are artificially boosting non-farm payrolls to the point the US government reached out to ask if I could help them look into it.
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