Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

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FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Even as the US 10y yield has come off the peak, rates in emerging markets – including in Asia – have been selling off as they remain under pressure.</li>
<li>Rates in Asia are vulnerable as they are expensive vis-à-vis the rest of EM, rising inflation should result in further rate hikes in the region, and debt profiles have deteriorated.</li>
<li>I thus expect rates in Asia to underperform and prefer selling bonds in the region paired with long bond positions in countries in other regions.</li>
</ul>


Even as the US 10y yield has come off the peak, rates in emerging markets – including in Asia – have been selling off as they remain under pressure.
Rates in Asia are vulnerable as they are expensive vis-à-vis the rest of EM, rising inflation should result in further rate hikes in the region, and debt profiles have deteriorated.
I thus expect rates in Asia to underperform and prefer selling bonds in the region paired with long bond positions in countries in other regions.


Yields in Asia Are Far from the Peak – Part II

INR 10Y

Yields in Asia Are Far from the Peak – Part II