FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

When Does Political Risk Matter in New Zealand? EUR Now a High Beta Currency

Political Risk Ebbs in Europe, Rises in the USA

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The USD has been undermined by doubts over the strength of the economy and intensifying political uncertainty.  There has been strength in EUR and JPY, however, both have been dampened by negative interest rates.  The GBP is looking increasingly shaky as its economy begins to show evidence of slowing in response to the Brexit fallout, and uncertainty has risen since the UK election.  Equities have been underpinned by lower global bond yields.  However, energy equities have lagged and technology share appear to have become overbought.  A weaker USD trend, falling yields, and rising equities, have boosted demand for EM currencies.  Oil prices have fallen to lows for the year as global supply rises faster than expected, despite OPEC production cuts; this may tend to support the JPY, Asia importer currencies, and high yielding EM currencies.  However, risks are mounting for equities and investors may soon switch to seek out more traditional safe havens, gold and the JPY.  Investors should begin to worry that the US Federal Reserve is sticking to its plan to normalize policy.  This is contributing to yield curve flattening in the US, a sign of tightening monetary conditions.  It is noteworthy that the Bank of Canada has also moved to a tightening bias, despite the fall in its underlying inflation to near record lows.  Furthermore, the UK yield curve has flattened, despite higher inflation, indicative of a weaker growth outlook.  Flatter yield curves, in part driven by weaker oil prices, will tend to undermine bank and energy sector equities, and technology share may be overbought.  Fed policy normalization, including a plan to begin balance sheet unwind this year, should tend to help stabilize a weaker USD, more so against EM and commodity currencies, especially if it coincides with some correction in global equities.  The balance of risks is swinging towards out-performance in JPY vs EM and commodity currencies.

The USD has been undermined by doubts over the strength of the economy and intensifying political uncertainty.  There has been strength in EUR and JPY, however, both have been dampened by negative interest rates.  The GBP is looking increasingly shaky as its economy begins to show evidence of slowing in response to the Brexit fallout, and uncertainty has risen since the UK election.  Equities have been underpinned by lower global bond yields.  However, energy equities have lagged and technology share appear to have become overbought.  A weaker USD trend, falling yields, and rising equities, have boosted demand for EM currencies.  Oil prices have fallen to lows for the year as global supply rises faster than expected, despite OPEC production cuts; this may tend to support the JPY, Asia importer currencies, and high yielding EM currencies.  However, risks are mounting for equities and investors may soon switch to seek out more traditional safe havens, gold and the JPY.  Investors should begin to worry that the US Federal Reserve is sticking to its plan to normalize policy.  This is contributing to yield curve flattening in the US, a sign of tightening monetary conditions.  It is noteworthy that the Bank of Canada has also moved to a tightening bias, despite the fall in its underlying inflation to near record lows.  Furthermore, the UK yield curve has flattened, despite higher inflation, indicative of a weaker growth outlook.  Flatter yield curves, in part driven by weaker oil prices, will tend to undermine bank and energy sector equities, and technology share may be overbought.  Fed policy normalization, including a plan to begin balance sheet unwind this year, should tend to help stabilize a weaker USD, more so against EM and commodity currencies, especially if it coincides with some correction in global equities.  The balance of risks is swinging towards out-performance in JPY vs EM and commodity currencies.

Yield Curve Flattening Reflects Tightening Monetary Conditions, Safe Haven Currencies May Benefit