IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker, Global Equity Research Ltd

Rickin Thakrar

14 years of experience in global investment research and trading. In relation to research, we focus on IPO, Event-driven and large-cap non-consensual ideas. In relation to trading, we focus on generating positive index-adjusted returns and have had several top-decile or top-quartile performances over the past three years. In terms of background, I have worked at several sell-side firms (JP, Redburn, Haitong, Mainfirst), won Starmine as top stock picker in European Food Retail in 2015 and have been voted top one to top-five by institutions and hedge funds.

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker

The State-Owned and Baidu Backed Online Grocer that Loses Lots of Money

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We believe there is scope for a food crisis in China. In this note, we take a deep look at the dynamics of food consumption in China and note four points:<ol><li>Food supply is under pressure: we find Chinese food supply is under pressure due to a combination of dwindling arable land, soil contamination and limits to economies of scale driven by some historical farming restrictions.</li><li>Food demand charts have become Bitcoin-esque: the demand for food, especially high quality and imported food, has exploded in China. We assess the underlying reasons for this demand and why we expect it to continue.</li><li>Recent government reforms could have a profound impact: The Chinese government have made major strides to improve food supply and have cut import tariffs, eased farming laws and have recently removed decade-long import restrictions on France and the US. The impact of these reforms could have a profound impact on individual retailer and supplier sales trajectories.</li></ol><ol start="4"><li>The way to invest in this secular trend: we have compiled a global list of retailers, suppliers and potential IPOs of companies who could directly benefit from the increasing food requirements in China. We believe the recent press of a <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/25/alibaba-and-kroger-in-talks.html" target="_blank">partnership between Alibaba and Kroger</a> is reflective of the immediate demands of this long-term trend.</li></ol>

We believe there is scope for a food crisis in China. In this note, we take a deep look at the dynamics of food consumption in China and note four points:Food supply is under pressure: we find Chinese food supply is under pressure due to a combination of dwindling arable land, soil contamination and limits to economies of scale driven by some historical farming restrictions.Food demand charts have become Bitcoin-esque: the demand for food, especially high quality and imported food, has exploded in China. We assess the underlying reasons for this demand and why we expect it to continue.Recent government reforms could have a profound impact: The Chinese government have made major strides to improve food supply and have cut import tariffs, eased farming laws and have recently removed decade-long import restrictions on France and the US. The impact of these reforms could have a profound impact on individual retailer and supplier sales trajectories.The way to invest in this secular trend: we have compiled a global list of retailers, suppliers and potential IPOs of companies who could directly benefit from the increasing food requirements in China. We believe the recent press of a partnership between Alibaba and Kroger is reflective of the immediate demands of this long-term trend.

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)

Will Alibaba Prevent an All-Out Food Crisis in China?