We may look back several months from now at the past week as the pivotal point where the market lost hope that the Fed could actually achieve a “soft landing” from the current monetary policy tightening cycle and instead began planning for how painful of a recession is coming.
Before beginning the question and answer session of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell clarified that “nothing had changed” from his hawkish message delivered during the Jackson Hole meeting back in August.
However, things did change in that instead the Fed goalposts for rate expectations got ratcheted up yet again for 2023 via their internal “dot plot,” which is their survey of where each Fed member thinks rates should be.
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