Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder of Vanda Insights, a Singapore-based provider of analysis and briefings on the oil markets. Former Asia Editorial Director at S&P Global Platts, the topmost price reporting agency on global energy commodities markets. 25 years of experience reporting, researching and analysing energy markets. Focus on connecting the dots between supply-demand fundamentals, geopolitics, economics, financial markets and demographics to present the big-picture view on oil, with a focus on factors influencing prices. Experienced in oil price discovery in the physical and derivatives markets. Aim to provide insights and analysis in a clear and succinct manner. Available for bespoke research, analysis and market briefings on the markets.

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

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Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

It seems these days you simply have to check the risk on/off switch in the financial markets to guess what crude might be doing. For reasons one can only guess, investors last week chose to take reassurance from the comments of Fed officials that current inflationary pressures were transitory and the central bank had started to “talk about talking about” tapering its asset purchases as a cooling measure. The latest US weekly jobless numbers came in at a fresh pandemic low and the Commerce Department confirmed last month’s estimate of a 6.4% annualised US GDP growth in Q1.The EIA weekly US oil stocks and demand data supported the bullish narrative and WTI futures on Thursday catapulted to their highest settle since – take this in slowly – October 2018.Over five consecutive sessions of gains since last Friday, Brent and WTI futures had rallied by a cumulative 7% and 8%. There were no signs of an agreement out of Vienna, where the US and Iran, along with major world powers, have been locked in talks aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear deal. The realisation that a deal – and fresh Iranian barrels flooding the market -- may not be imminent took the lid off prices.But this doesn’t mean crude is poised for a bull run. We look at the downside risks including the ghost of inflation, Covid’s lingering grip over parts of the world, and China tightening oversight of trading and pricing in the domestic oil and metals markets in a bid to curb inflationary pressures.

It seems these days you simply have to check the risk on/off switch in the financial markets to guess what crude might be doing. For reasons one can only guess, investors last week chose to take reassurance from the comments of Fed officials that current inflationary pressures were transitory and the central bank had started to “talk about talking about” tapering its asset purchases as a cooling measure. The latest US weekly jobless numbers came in at a fresh pandemic low and the Commerce Department confirmed last month’s estimate of a 6.4% annualised US GDP growth in Q1.The EIA weekly US oil stocks and demand data supported the bullish narrative and WTI futures on Thursday catapulted to their highest settle since – take this in slowly – October 2018.Over five consecutive sessions of gains since last Friday, Brent and WTI futures had rallied by a cumulative 7% and 8%. There were no signs of an agreement out of Vienna, where the US and Iran, along with major world powers, have been locked in talks aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear deal. The realisation that a deal – and fresh Iranian barrels flooding the market -- may not be imminent took the lid off prices.But this doesn’t mean crude is poised for a bull run. We look at the downside risks including the ghost of inflation, Covid’s lingering grip over parts of the world, and China tightening oversight of trading and pricing in the domestic oil and metals markets in a bid to curb inflationary pressures. 

Weekly Oil Views: US Cheer Spurs Fresh Crude Rally but Downside Risks Lurk

Crude Oil

Weekly Oil Views: US Cheer Spurs Fresh Crude Rally but Downside Risks Lurk