bullish
Wait: Is It 2001 Again?!
SUMMARY
- Looking at historical parallels to assess prevailing macro conditions can be a useful exercise - also in markets, one can argue that in the end history doesn’t perfectly repeat itself but if often rhymes.
- In December 2021, carrying a similar analysis I found out that 2022 had a high potential of being ‘‘2018 on steroids’’ and hence delivering negative returns across asset classes: what about today?
- Refreshing my macro framework and digging into 50+ years of history, the evidence is pretty compelling: the next 6 months might well resemble the Q4 2000 - Q1 2001 period.
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