European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

VW Consortium Just Shy of 90% Threshold of Europcar

Event-Driven

In my previous insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/europcar-is-again-on-the-driving-seat" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53577" rel="noopener">Europcar Is Again on the Driving Seat</a>, I recommended Long Europcar (TP €0.58, DCF based).
On 28 July, a consortium led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/volkswagen-ag-pref" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:734:1" rel="noopener">Volkswagen (Pref) (VOW3 GY)</a>, together with Attestor fund and Pon Holdings transport group, entered a tender offer support agreement setting T&amp;Cs for the acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/europcar-mobility-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21457:1" rel="noopener">Europcar Mobility Group (EUCAR FP)</a>.
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The offer is €0.50/share (vs. € 0.44/share on the offer discussed in June, c. 14% higher).
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The premium compared to the prior closing is c. 3% and implies valuing the group at around €2,500 mn. Volkswagen's intention is to regain a controlling stake in Europcar (Volkswagen sold Europcar in 2006 for €3,300 mn).
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There is a potential price supplement of €0.01 if a 90% squeeze-out threshold is reached by the deal's completion.
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The Board of Europcar "favourably welcomed" the planned deal.
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This deal is highly likely to close, in my view. Gross spread (to €0.51, including the success payment) is 2.4%, c. 4.7% annualized, assuming deal closes in 6 months. Recommendation is long EUCAR FP.
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In my previous insight Europcar Is Again on the Driving Seat, I recommended Long Europcar (TP €0.58, DCF based).
On 28 July, a consortium led by Volkswagen (Pref) (VOW3 GY), together with Attestor fund and Pon Holdings transport group, entered a tender offer support agreement setting T&amp;Cs for the acquisition of Europcar Mobility Group (EUCAR FP).


The offer is €0.50/share (vs. € 0.44/share on the offer discussed in June, c. 14% higher).


The premium compared to the prior closing is c. 3% and implies valuing the group at around €2,500 mn. Volkswagen's intention is to regain a controlling stake in Europcar (Volkswagen sold Europcar in 2006 for €3,300 mn).


There is a potential price supplement of €0.01 if a 90% squeeze-out threshold is reached by the deal's completion.


The Board of Europcar "favourably welcomed" the planned deal.



This deal is highly likely to close, in my view. Gross spread (to €0.51, including the success payment) is 2.4%, c. 4.7% annualized, assuming deal closes in 6 months. Recommendation is long EUCAR FP.


Europcar Mobility Group

VW Consortium/Europcar: Spread