European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Vista/Blue Prism Group: Agreed Lowball Offer

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The sweetened offer finally came, preemptively and close to the level mentioned, anticipating a potential offer by SS&amp;C. Tactics resemble those used in the battle for Morrisons.</li>
<li>Vista increases the offer price to 1,250p, 11% higher than the first offer, for an implied equity value of £1,219 million, and 6.1x EV/Fwd Revenue (vs. 5.2x first offer).</li>
<li>My updated fair value estimate is 1,380p, on 6.6x EV/Fwd Revenue. Gross spread is c. -3.1%, the market believes there’s more to come. Reiterate long PRSM LN.</li>
</ul>


The sweetened offer finally came, preemptively and close to the level mentioned, anticipating a potential offer by SS&amp;C. Tactics resemble those used in the battle for Morrisons.
Vista increases the offer price to 1,250p, 11% higher than the first offer, for an implied equity value of £1,219 million, and 6.1x EV/Fwd Revenue (vs. 5.2x first offer).
My updated fair value estimate is 1,380p, on 6.6x EV/Fwd Revenue. Gross spread is c. -3.1%, the market believes there’s more to come. Reiterate long PRSM LN.


Vista/Blue Prism: “Increased and Final” Offer Amidst Potential Bid Contest