Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

High Yield Experts

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

Credit

The Q1/20-21 results from Vedanta Limited (VEDL) were in line with expectations, considering the negative impact of COVID-19. Leverage increased slightly but remains low for VEDL with Net Debt/EBITDA at 1.2x, while we estimate Net Debt/EBITDA for Vedanta Resources Limited (VRL) is a weak 3.75x. Liquidity at VEDL remains adequate, and its privatisation remains a key near-term credit driver. Having raised USD 3.15 bn in funds, VRL can afford to buy out all the minority investors at c. INR 127-140/share. That said, it only needs to buy at least 90% of the voting rights, and VEDL has ADS with no voting rights. This means that VRL can pay as much as c. INR 170-175 for each of the common shares listed in India, or a 25-26% premium over Friday’s closing price. With early bids this morning around INR 138, we see a high likelihood that the discovered price will be at or below INR 175, allowing for the transaction to be completed with the cash and loan commitments on hand. Overall, we expect: [1] the privatisation will succeed; [2] VRL's credit profile will improve due to the simpler corporate structure and more efficient cash upstreaming; and [3] the rating agencies will enact upgrades.

  The Q1/20-21 results from Vedanta Limited (VEDL) were in line with expectations, considering the negative impact of COVID-19. Leverage increased slightly but remains low for VEDL with Net Debt/EBITDA at 1.2x, while we estimate Net Debt/EBITDA for Vedanta Resources Limited (VRL) is a weak 3.75x. Liquidity at VEDL remains adequate, and its privatisation remains a key near-term credit driver.   Having raised USD 3.15 bn in funds, VRL can afford to buy out all the minority investors at c. INR 127-140/share. That said, it only needs to buy at least 90% of the voting rights, and VEDL has ADS with no voting rights. This means that VRL can pay as much as c. INR 170-175 for each of the common shares listed in India, or a 25-26% premium over Friday’s closing price. With early bids this morning around INR 138, we see a high likelihood that the discovered price will be at or below INR 175, allowing for the transaction to be completed with the cash and loan commitments on hand.   Overall, we expect: [1] the privatisation will succeed; [2] VRL's credit profile will improve due to the simpler corporate structure and more efficient cash upstreaming; and [3] the rating agencies will enact upgrades. 

Vedanta Resources - Event Flash - Q1 FY 2020-21 Results, Privatisation Update - Lucror Analytics