Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

Bond investors have recently joined their equity counterparts and raised the ante on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to pause further increases in the federal funds rate.
Despite the lack of sufficient evidence that economic growth has reverted to a more sustainable footing, bond investors have reverted to playing the long-standing game of chicken with the FOMC about the economy’s ability to withstand members’ estimate of the neutral federal funds rate.
Concerns about yield curve inversion have recently returned, but investors are struggling to adjust to a more normal environment where short-term interest rate volatility is no longer being artificially suppressed by Fed policy.
The persistently low term premium demanded by bond investors has boosted financial accommodation at any given policy rate level, thereby raising the risks that the FOMC may still increase the federal funds rate even after the yield curve has become inverted in order to achieve sustainable growth.
East Asian economies have imparted a downward bias on US inflation and bond yields over the past 25 years and have consequently pushed the Fed into adopting more accommodative policy settings over the aforementioned period.
The FOMC needs unambiguous evidence of slowing jobs growth towards levels that alleviate downward pressure on the unemployment rate before contemplating a pause in hiking the federal funds rate at the March FOMC meeting.

Bond investors have recently joined their equity counterparts and raised the ante on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to pause further increases in the federal funds rate.
Despite the lack of sufficient evidence that economic growth has reverted to a more sustainable footing, bond investors have reverted to playing the long-standing game of chicken with the FOMC about the economy’s ability to withstand members’ estimate of the neutral federal funds rate.
Concerns about yield curve inversion have recently returned, but investors are struggling to adjust to a more normal environment where short-term interest rate volatility is no longer being artificially suppressed by Fed policy.
The persistently low term premium demanded by bond investors has boosted financial accommodation at any given policy rate level, thereby raising the risks that the FOMC may still increase the federal funds rate even after the yield curve has become inverted in order to achieve sustainable growth.
East Asian economies have imparted a downward bias on US inflation and bond yields over the past 25 years and have consequently pushed the Fed into adopting more accommodative policy settings over the aforementioned period.
The FOMC needs unambiguous evidence of slowing jobs growth towards levels that alleviate downward pressure on the unemployment rate before contemplating a pause in hiking the federal funds rate at the March FOMC meeting.

US Treasury Market Switches Its Message to the Fed and Raises the Ante on Policy Conduct