Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder of Vanda Insights, a Singapore-based provider of analysis and briefings on the oil markets. Former Asia Editorial Director at S&P Global Platts, the topmost price reporting agency on global energy commodities markets. 25 years of experience reporting, researching and analysing energy markets. Focus on connecting the dots between supply-demand fundamentals, geopolitics, economics, financial markets and demographics to present the big-picture view on oil, with a focus on factors influencing prices. Experienced in oil price discovery in the physical and derivatives markets. Aim to provide insights and analysis in a clear and succinct manner. Available for bespoke research, analysis and market briefings on the markets.

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

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Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

OPEC and its non-OPEC allies on November 30 finally decided to stay the course with their crude production cuts till the end of 2018. Benchmark Brent and WTI rewarded the agreement in Vienna with a relief rally on Thursday and Friday, but one that only managed to reverse the cumulative losses of the first half of the week, which had been spurred by anxiety over perceived Russian dissent.Undue focus on the daily price volatility sometimes obscures the big picture. The more important story here is that at the end of the first 11 months of the 1.72 million b/d of combined cuts implemented by 22 OPEC and non-OPEC producers, OECD commercial oil stocks had dropped to around 140 million barrels above their five-year average from a surplus of 340 million barrels at the start of the year. And Brent and WTI had surged 15% and 10% respectively to above $64/barrel and $58/barrel. Brent and Dubai crudes have been in backwardation since August, while WTI is almost there, with the exception of the front two months, which are in a mild contango. Backwardation, a market state where commodity for prompt delivery costs more than for deferred delivery, is associated with balanced rather than oversupplied markets and encourages movement out of rather than into storage.2017 was about OPEC proving its detractors wrong by largely adhering to its overall output ceiling, even if several individual members continued to overproduce, and US shale making the bloc's task of rebalancing the market difficult but not impossible. In the battle of the sheikh versus shale, the first round went to the sheikh.Recent signs point to drilling activity in the US shale patch perking up again after about three months of a lull. The two sides look set to begin 2018 by squaring off again but there is one target OPEC can be more certain of achieving in the new year.

OPEC and its non-OPEC allies on November 30 finally decided to stay the course with their crude production cuts till the end of 2018. Benchmark Brent and WTI rewarded the agreement in Vienna with a relief rally on Thursday and Friday, but one that only managed to reverse the cumulative losses of the first half of the week, which had been spurred by anxiety over perceived Russian dissent.Undue focus on the daily price volatility sometimes obscures the big picture. The more important story here is that at the end of the first 11 months of the 1.72 million b/d of combined cuts implemented by 22 OPEC and non-OPEC producers, OECD commercial oil stocks had dropped to around 140 million barrels above their five-year average from a surplus of 340 million barrels at the start of the year. And Brent and WTI had surged 15% and 10% respectively to above $64/barrel and $58/barrel. Brent and Dubai crudes have been in backwardation since August, while WTI is almost there, with the exception of the front two months, which are in a mild contango. Backwardation, a market state where commodity for prompt delivery costs more than for deferred delivery, is associated with balanced rather than oversupplied markets and encourages movement out of rather than into storage.2017 was about OPEC proving its detractors wrong by largely adhering to its overall output ceiling, even if several individual members continued to overproduce, and US shale making the bloc's task of rebalancing the market difficult but not impossible. In the battle of the sheikh versus shale, the first round went to the sheikh.Recent signs point to drilling activity in the US shale patch perking up again after about three months of a lull. The two sides look set to begin 2018 by squaring off again but there is one target OPEC can be more certain of achieving in the new year.

US Shale May Still Cap Crude Prices but OPEC Has Secured the Floor

Crude Oil

US Shale May Still Cap Crude Prices but OPEC Has Secured the Floor