US Yield 10y (USGG10YR) – Long Term Rise Confirmed

Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus, Aletheia Capital

Chris Roberts

Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<p>Our base case remains that the 35-year decline in US interest rates is over, and while we do not expect a consistent uptrend in yield to occur, the risk is now for higher rates. In a historical context, the 2016 low in long-term US Bonds can be viewed as a massive overshoot and a rally back to 4.00-5.00% could be seen as a reversion to some sort of rates normalcy.</p><p>This year we have been waiting for the 10-year US T-Note to partially retrace the 2016 surge in rates, the decline in yield from the December 2016 high of 2.59% has finally reached the 38-71% retracement support area for that advance, where the correction should end. </p>

Our base case remains that the 35-year decline in US interest rates is over, and while we do not expect a consistent uptrend in yield to occur, the risk is now for higher rates. In a historical context, the 2016 low in long-term US Bonds can be viewed as a massive overshoot and a rally back to 4.00-5.00% could be seen as a reversion to some sort of rates normalcy.This year we have been waiting for the 10-year US T-Note to partially retrace the 2016 surge in rates, the decline in yield from the December 2016 high of 2.59% has finally reached the 38-71% retracement support area for that advance, where the correction should end. 

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic)

US Interest Rates: Boiling a Frog