Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Vicki Bryan founded Bond Angle in 2018, after more than 20 years in investment management and research, with a primary focus in high yield and distressed markets and selected coverage in investment-grade fixed income and equity. 

Vicki Bryan's Bond Angle provides insightful commentary and analysis on high yield bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts, noted for spotting management stumbles and shenanigans early and often. Follow Vicki at bondangle.substack.com and on Twitter @VickiBryanBondA and LinkedIn.

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

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The World Health Organization finally declared on Wednesday that <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/who-declares-the-coronavirus-outbreak-a-pandemic/?utm_source=STAT+Newsletters&amp;utm_campaign=912bef1f5f-breaking_COPY_01&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_8cab1d7961-912bef1f5f-149609769" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coronavirus COVID-19 has become a pandemic</a>. This with now nearly 128,343 confirmed cases in 116 countries and 4,720 reported deaths—a case fatality rate (CFR) inching higher at 3.7%—according to <a href="https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Johns Hopkins CSSE</a>.US cases have swelled 10x in just over a week to 1,663 with 40 deaths, stats still more troubling because of continued under measurement caused by lack<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/whether-youre-tested-for-coronavirus-depends-on-where-you-live-11583897155?mod=hp_lead_pos2" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> of testing</a>more than two months since acknowledging<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/podcasts/the-daily/coronavirus-us-testing.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> the outbreak back in January</a>. <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-have-been-tested-coronavirus/607597/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Glaring ineptitude</a> has been compounded by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/maybe-i-have-a-natural-ability-trump-plays-medical-expert-on-coronavirus-by-second-guessing-the-professionals/2020/03/06/3ee0574c-5ffb-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">deliberate efforts</a> by <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/05/politics/donald-trump-sean-hannity-coronavirus/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US President Trump</a> to <a href="https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN20Y2LM" target="_blank" rel="noopener">conceal</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-fact-check.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">downplay risks from the </a>virus which he views <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/26/trump-keeps-his-coronavirus-press-conference-focused-one-high-risk-patient-himself/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more as a threat to his reelection prospects</a>.Such failures continue to impair efforts by frontline US responders at hospitals struggling all over the country with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/shortages-confusion-and-poor-communication-complicate-coronavirus-preparations/2020/02/25/d9e56396-575d-11ea-9b35-def5a027d470_story.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poor data plus chronic shortages of virus testing kits and vital supplies</a> plus loss of staff who have been sickened or must be quarantined after exposure to coronavirus patients.For investors, the best odds are that rosy guidance for 2020 hospital operators released just weeks ago will be reduced on potentially dramatically lower profits as already low margin emergency rooms fill up with patients who may struggle to pay while high margin discretionary surgeries and treatments will be postponed.Bonds in the largest US hospital operators HCA Holdings (HCA US), Tenet Healthcare (THC US), and Community Health Systems (CYH US), already generously priced on ambitious market expectations even before the COVID-19 outbreak, are increasingly vulnerable to meaningful downside pressure as the rapidly spreading virus overwhelms the country's severely underprepared capacity to cope.<div><div class="content-highlight">Read on for Bond Angle analysis of accelerating risks for US hospitals, the most vulnerable segments, forecasts, and more.</div></div>

The World Health Organization finally declared on Wednesday that Coronavirus COVID-19 has become a pandemic. This with now nearly 128,343 confirmed cases in 116 countries and 4,720 reported deaths—a case fatality rate (CFR) inching higher at 3.7%—according to Johns Hopkins CSSE.US cases have swelled 10x in just over a week to 1,663 with 40 deaths, stats still more troubling because of continued under measurement caused by lack of testingmore than two months since acknowledging the outbreak back in January. Glaring ineptitude has been compounded by deliberate efforts by US President Trump to conceal and downplay risks from the virus which he views more as a threat to his reelection prospects.Such failures continue to impair efforts by frontline US responders at hospitals struggling all over the country with poor data plus chronic shortages of virus testing kits and vital supplies plus loss of staff who have been sickened or must be quarantined after exposure to coronavirus patients.For investors, the best odds are that rosy guidance for 2020 hospital operators released just weeks ago will be reduced on potentially dramatically lower profits as already low margin emergency rooms fill up with patients who may struggle to pay while high margin discretionary surgeries and treatments will be postponed.Bonds in the largest US hospital operators HCA Holdings (HCA US), Tenet Healthcare (THC US), and Community Health Systems (CYH US), already generously priced on ambitious market expectations even before the COVID-19 outbreak, are increasingly vulnerable to meaningful downside pressure as the rapidly spreading virus overwhelms the country's severely underprepared capacity to cope.Read on for Bond Angle analysis of accelerating risks for US hospitals, the most vulnerable segments, forecasts, and more.

HCA Healthcare, Inc.

US Hospitals: In Sickness and in Hell