Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

US Financial Markets: Preparing for a Changing of the Guard

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>US equities have discounted the arrival of a lower federal funds rate (FFR). Upbeat corporate profit expectations and a lower FFR could easily produce an H2 equity market melt-up.</li>
<li>Financial markets have largely ignored geopolitical risks. Holding assets in Western financial institutions now has counterparty risks. High budget deficits driven by defence spending are bearish for productivity and profitability.</li>
<li>The appetite of private investors to buy longer-dated Treasuries will be tested by the arrival of persistently large budget deficits. Notably, the outlook for foreign participation is less certain. </li>
</ul>


US equities have discounted the arrival of a lower federal funds rate (FFR). Upbeat corporate profit expectations and a lower FFR could easily produce an H2 equity market melt-up.
Financial markets have largely ignored geopolitical risks. Holding assets in Western financial institutions now has counterparty risks. High budget deficits driven by defence spending are bearish for productivity and profitability.
The appetite of private investors to buy longer-dated Treasuries will be tested by the arrival of persistently large budget deficits. Notably, the outlook for foreign participation is less certain. 


US Financial Markets Underprice Geopolitical Risks as Equities Flirt With Another Melt-Up