Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Preview: Due November 13 - U.S. October CPI - Similar to August and September

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>An upside CPI inflation surprise has joined upside news on the US labour market. It resisted dis-inflated expectations despite sharp falls in energy prices.</li><li>Core strength was more pronounced and not reliant on shelter price inflation, which it exceeded by the most since Feb-22. Nor does strength reflect residual seasonality. </li><li>Repeating 2022-23’s pattern would mean a softer Q4, helping the Fed to cut again in November and December before more robust numbers in Q1 start urging restraint.</li></ul><p></p>

An upside CPI inflation surprise has joined upside news on the US labour market. It resisted dis-inflated expectations despite sharp falls in energy prices.Core strength was more pronounced and not reliant on shelter price inflation, which it exceeded by the most since Feb-22. Nor does strength reflect residual seasonality. Repeating 2022-23’s pattern would mean a softer Q4, helping the Fed to cut again in November and December before more robust numbers in Q1 start urging restraint.

US CPI Extends Hawkish Narrative