China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

<p>Given the recent tariff implementation by the United States and China, we wanted to revisit our view of the trade war and how it may have changed. Outside of headlines, there are important shifts happening to the fundamental economic environment.</p><ol><li>As we have noted repeatedly here, we always felt the market was underestimating the probability that some retaliatory tariffs would be implemented. In most cases, we estimated the probability at 40%, meaning it was still less likely that they would not…</li></ol>

Given the recent tariff implementation by the United States and China, we wanted to revisit our view of the trade war and how it may have changed. Outside of headlines, there are important shifts happening to the fundamental economic environment.As we have noted repeatedly here, we always felt the market was underestimating the probability that some retaliatory tariffs would be implemented. In most cases, we estimated the probability at 40%, meaning it was still less likely that they would not…

US China Trade War Update