Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Trade War/China Stocks/ Consumers & Singles’ Day/Tech Worries

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

The next US recession should be shorter compared to other countries, because the Fed is still building an interest rate buffer from which to ease policy should circumstances require.Strength in US equities relative to other markets has merely reflected long-standing superior fundamentals, as well as the inherently better ability of the economy to recover from shocks.Historically, it has been difficult for a country to singlehandedly drive the global economy for protracted periods, as testified by rotating leadership since the 1980s.The US and China remain the most plausible candidates to drive the next global economic cycle, although their unfolding cold war could impart limited benefits to both countries based on the current structure of their economic relationship.The current environment offers China the opportunity to veer away from credit stimulation to achieve short-term economic stabilisation and to degrade the role of state involvement in the allocation of capital, but recent omens have not been encouraging. Greater openness to foreign competition and product innovation are crucial to China’s long-term growth prospects by raising the economy’s flexibility and ability to withstand economic and financial shocks, although reforms need to be instituted with greater urgency.

The next US recession should be shorter compared to other countries, because the Fed is still building an interest rate buffer from which to ease policy should circumstances require.Strength in US equities relative to other markets has merely reflected long-standing superior fundamentals, as well as the inherently better ability of the economy to recover from shocks.Historically, it has been difficult for a country to singlehandedly drive the global economy for protracted periods, as testified by rotating leadership since the 1980s.The US and China remain the most plausible candidates to drive the next global economic cycle, although their unfolding cold war could impart limited benefits to both countries based on the current structure of their economic relationship.The current environment offers China the opportunity to veer away from credit stimulation to achieve short-term economic stabilisation and to degrade the role of state involvement in the allocation of capital, but recent omens have not been encouraging. Greater openness to foreign competition and product innovation are crucial to China’s long-term growth prospects by raising the economy’s flexibility and ability to withstand economic and financial shocks, although reforms need to be instituted with greater urgency.

US & China: Peering into the Next Global Economic and Financial Cycle