Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

US Banking System: Repeat of 2008 Unlikely as Fed Separates Balance Sheet from Interest Rate Policy

Fed Holds Its Nerve, but Banking System Liquidity Issues Persist

Fed's Inflation Fight: Upended by Banking System Concerns?

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Loans &amp; leases remain the largest component of bank credit. Tighter monetary conditions are impacting loan quality as testified by rising delinquency rates for auto loans and credit cards.</li>
<li>Focus has shifted to the high exposure of smaller banks to commercial real estate loans. Rising CMBS delinquencies are being viewed as potential signs of future trouble for banks.</li>
<li>Higher exposure to multi-family loans should help banks due to their historically lower delinquency rates compared to construction and development loans that were much more important in 2008. </li>
</ul>


Loans &amp; leases remain the largest component of bank credit. Tighter monetary conditions are impacting loan quality as testified by rising delinquency rates for auto loans and credit cards.
Focus has shifted to the high exposure of smaller banks to commercial real estate loans. Rising CMBS delinquencies are being viewed as potential signs of future trouble for banks.
Higher exposure to multi-family loans should help banks due to their historically lower delinquency rates compared to construction and development loans that were much more important in 2008. 


US Banks' Commercial Real Estate Exposure: Not the Same as 2008