Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Alex Ng is the founder and head of research of the economic and investment research house Fortress Hill Advisors. Prior to founding Fortress Hill Advisors, he worked as an economic research analyst across government, academic, and financial institutes including the Hong Kong Financial Secretary’s Office (Office of the Government Economist), Economic Research Center of the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at CUHK, and State Street Global Markets. Alex holds a Master of Arts in Economics degree from Columbia University in the City of New York and a Bachelor of Arts in Economics and Mathematics from Wesleyan University (CT, USA).

Our firm's expertise lies in macroeconomics, global macro,  global thematic research, company and equity research, multi-asset strategy, event driven, and ESG.

We also do proprietary trading on the firm's capital, to try to vindicate our investment thesis. Our flagship publication, Heard from Fortress Hill (HFFH) provides our weekly market observations and is freely available on our website: https://fortresshill-advisors.com/hffh/

Founder & Head of Research

FOMC Preview for September 18: An One-Time Easing

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Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

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Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Though our baseline view is for a soft landing for the U.S. economy and only one 25bps cut by end 2024, uncertainty exists over the scale of the slowdown. </li>
<li>If the U.S. economy has a harder landing (stagnation/technical recession with 20-25% probability), then the Fed could likely cut the Fed Funds rate to 2.50% or below in 2025.  </li>
<li>A skew exist to lower Fed Funds depending on the outcome of the economy.  </li>
</ul>


Though our baseline view is for a soft landing for the U.S. economy and only one 25bps cut by end 2024, uncertainty exists over the scale of the slowdown. 
If the U.S. economy has a harder landing (stagnation/technical recession with 20-25% probability), then the Fed could likely cut the Fed Funds rate to 2.50% or below in 2025.  
A skew exist to lower Fed Funds depending on the outcome of the economy.  


US: A Harder Landing and Fed's Response