European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Unicredit/Banco BPM: Italian Banking Consolidation

Banco BPM’s Sweetened Takeover Offer for Anima Holding

UniCredit's Strategic Stake in Commerzbank and Implications for a Takeover

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Danish Compromise Uncertainty: If Banco BPM fails to secure Danish Compromise approval, its CET1 ratio could decline by 268bps, making it a riskier acquisition for UniCredit, potentially jeopardizing the deal.</li>
<li>UniCredit’s Strategic Dilemma: UniCredit may renegotiate the exchange ratio, withdraw the bid, or pursue Commerzbank instead, as Banco BPM’s Anima acquisition increases capital consumption risks and complicates UniCredit’s strategic plans.</li>
<li>Market Skepticism: As of February 18, 2025, Banco BPM's shares trade at €9.04, while UniCredit's offer values them at €8.47, leading to a +6.7% gross spread.</li>
</ul>


Danish Compromise Uncertainty: If Banco BPM fails to secure Danish Compromise approval, its CET1 ratio could decline by 268bps, making it a riskier acquisition for UniCredit, potentially jeopardizing the deal.
UniCredit’s Strategic Dilemma: UniCredit may renegotiate the exchange ratio, withdraw the bid, or pursue Commerzbank instead, as Banco BPM’s Anima acquisition increases capital consumption risks and complicates UniCredit’s strategic plans.
Market Skepticism: As of February 18, 2025, Banco BPM's shares trade at €9.04, while UniCredit's offer values them at €8.47, leading to a +6.7% gross spread.


UniCredit's Banco BPM Takeover: A Deal on the Brink?

Banco BPM SpA

UniCredit's Banco BPM Takeover: A Deal on the Brink?