Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

Despite elevated uncertainty and lowered growth expectations for 2019, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) still expects continued global economic expansion, thereby potentially placing it at variance with the expectations embedded in financial markets.
The remaining efficacy of monetary policy in the Eurozone is being undermined by the conspicuous absence of an interest rate buffer that could ultimately be detrimental to any future attempts to support aggregate demand.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan will continue its ultra-accommodative policy stance due to downside risks to medium and long-term inflationary expectations, but low corporate profits growth expectations limit downside equity market risks.
Current expectations for corporate profits growth in the Eurozone and China require downgrading due to their respective economic outlooks, implying downward pressure on equity prices.
Crucially, US corporate profit expectations have been scaled back to match revenue expansion, thereby indicating that analysts have finally embraced a more realistic approach towards the future path of operating margins.

Despite elevated uncertainty and lowered growth expectations for 2019, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) still expects continued global economic expansion, thereby potentially placing it at variance with the expectations embedded in financial markets.
The remaining efficacy of monetary policy in the Eurozone is being undermined by the conspicuous absence of an interest rate buffer that could ultimately be detrimental to any future attempts to support aggregate demand.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan will continue its ultra-accommodative policy stance due to downside risks to medium and long-term inflationary expectations, but low corporate profits growth expectations limit downside equity market risks.
Current expectations for corporate profits growth in the Eurozone and China require downgrading due to their respective economic outlooks, implying downward pressure on equity prices.
Crucially, US corporate profit expectations have been scaled back to match revenue expansion, thereby indicating that analysts have finally embraced a more realistic approach towards the future path of operating margins.

Uncertain Global Economic Outlook Produces Corporate Profit Expectations of Varying Credibility