Global Bank Equity Specialist, Creative Portfolios

Paul Hollingworth

Global Bank Equity Specialist

Creative Portfolios

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

United kingdom Multi-utilities / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Just over a year ago, we published <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/uk-political-risk-like-it-or-lump-it" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:24147" rel="noopener">UK Political Risk: Like It or Lump It</a> .  In the discussion, we cited a 33% chance of a general election in 2019. That equates to a winning 2-1 trade. Such a bet would have just scraped home - by 1 month!In the aforementioned insight, we detailed what a fully-fledged Corbyn government would mean for a beleaguered UK, and in the discussion we analysed what impact this would have on UK assets.Earlier this year, we correctly predicted trouble for Macri and Argentine assets in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2019-elections-part-6-argentina-macri-magic-and-the-peronist-spell" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:27792" rel="noopener">2019 Elections - Part 6. Argentina: Macri Magic and the Peronist Spell</a> assigning him with a much lower victory probability than the over-optimistic market while we successfully predicted comfortable victories for Ramaphosa in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2019-elections-part-4-south-africa-ramaphosa-anc-s-magician" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:27785" rel="noopener">2019 Elections - Part 4. South Africa: Ramaphosa - ANC’s Magician?</a> and for New Democracy in Greece in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2019-elections-part-5-greece-new-democracy-promises-magic-makeover" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:27788" rel="noopener">2019 Elections - Part 5. Greece: New Democracy Promises Magic Makeover</a>. The Greek stock market has been a stealthy out performer throughout 2019.In this brief insight, we will outline objectively what we believe may happen in the pre-Xmas general election on December 12th.

Just over a year ago, we published UK Political Risk: Like It or Lump It .  In the discussion, we cited a 33% chance of a general election in 2019. That equates to a winning 2-1 trade. Such a bet would have just scraped home - by 1 month!In the aforementioned insight, we detailed what a fully-fledged Corbyn government would mean for a beleaguered UK, and in the discussion we analysed what impact this would have on UK assets.Earlier this year, we correctly predicted trouble for Macri and Argentine assets in 2019 Elections - Part 6. Argentina: Macri Magic and the Peronist Spell assigning him with a much lower victory probability than the over-optimistic market while we successfully predicted comfortable victories for Ramaphosa in 2019 Elections - Part 4. South Africa: Ramaphosa - ANC’s Magician? and for New Democracy in Greece in 2019 Elections - Part 5. Greece: New Democracy Promises Magic Makeover. The Greek stock market has been a stealthy out performer throughout 2019.In this brief insight, we will outline objectively what we believe may happen in the pre-Xmas general election on December 12th. 

UK: What Will Happen in the UK General Election?