Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Unemployment Wobbles near a Tipping Point

UK: Bullish Trends Beneath Bias After Brexit

UK: GDP Rebound Crushes Current Recession Fear

UK: IP Contracting to 2017 Levels in Mid-19

UK: GDP Contraction Before Brexit Bifurcation

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

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<li><em>The services PMI disappointed expectations by falling 1.1-points to 49.5 in Sep-19. All three UK PMIs are now below the threshold level of 50 that notionally indicates no change, but rising uncertainty effects bias these data to exaggerate the hit.</em></li>
<li><em>I expect GDP to be unchanged through August and only rise 0.1% m-o-m in September, but that would still deliver 0.4% q-o-q growth in 3Q19, absent revisions. Manufacturing surveys warn the quarter could turn weaker, though.</em></li>
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The services PMI disappointed expectations by falling 1.1-points to 49.5 in Sep-19. All three UK PMIs are now below the threshold level of 50 that notionally indicates no change, but rising uncertainty effects bias these data to exaggerate the hit.
I expect GDP to be unchanged through August and only rise 0.1% m-o-m in September, but that would still deliver 0.4% q-o-q growth in 3Q19, absent revisions. Manufacturing surveys warn the quarter could turn weaker, though.


UK: Uncertainty Effect Intensifies in Sep-19