Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Sustaining the Q1 rebound in April suggests economic trends have improved in 2024 to about 0.3% q-o-q for demand and 0.4% for supply amid slightly rising unemployment.</li><li>The fading positive supply shock from falling energy prices should slow those trends before policy aligns at neutral such that both trends converge at 0.3% q-o-q in 2025.</li><li>Easing before expectations have re-anchored with the target risks excessively high inflation, compounding the UK risk of rates reversing higher relative to other countries.</li></ul><p></p>

Sustaining the Q1 rebound in April suggests economic trends have improved in 2024 to about 0.3% q-o-q for demand and 0.4% for supply amid slightly rising unemployment.The fading positive supply shock from falling energy prices should slow those trends before policy aligns at neutral such that both trends converge at 0.3% q-o-q in 2025.Easing before expectations have re-anchored with the target risks excessively high inflation, compounding the UK risk of rates reversing higher relative to other countries.

UK: Structural Trend Imputation