Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>UK GDP disappointed as revisions meant December’s surprisingly modest decline was consistent with a much weaker Q4, falling by 0.3% q-o-q after Q3’s 0.1% contraction.</li><li>Although GDP is technically in recession, that definition is too easy to meet for a stagnant economy. The macro regime is not breaking into a traditional recession.</li><li>Surveys suggest that GDP is already rebounding without the dip loosening the labour market. In our view, excess demand and inflation remain inconsistent with rate cuts.</li></ul><p></p>

UK GDP disappointed as revisions meant December’s surprisingly modest decline was consistent with a much weaker Q4, falling by 0.3% q-o-q after Q3’s 0.1% contraction.Although GDP is technically in recession, that definition is too easy to meet for a stagnant economy. The macro regime is not breaking into a traditional recession.Surveys suggest that GDP is already rebounding without the dip loosening the labour market. In our view, excess demand and inflation remain inconsistent with rate cuts.

UK Stagnation is Technically a Recession