Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>UK services CPI inflation exceeded expectations again by only slowing to 5.68%, ruling out a June rate cut by being 0.4pp above the BoE’s forecast, but maybe not much more.</li><li>Headline CPI inflation is only tracking 5bps higher, and underlying measures are slowing, albeit not to target, while volatile airfares drive most of the latest upside.</li><li>The BoE will probably feel confident enough in its subdued forecast to keep an August cut alive. We still see that as premature but believe the BoE will do it regardless.</li></ul><p></p>

UK services CPI inflation exceeded expectations again by only slowing to 5.68%, ruling out a June rate cut by being 0.4pp above the BoE’s forecast, but maybe not much more.Headline CPI inflation is only tracking 5bps higher, and underlying measures are slowing, albeit not to target, while volatile airfares drive most of the latest upside.The BoE will probably feel confident enough in its subdued forecast to keep an August cut alive. We still see that as premature but believe the BoE will do it regardless.

UK Services Air-Lifts Dovish Pressure