Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>UK retail sales more than fully recovered from April’s crash in May, although neither move looks like a fundamental signal. The early Easter explains half the volatility.</li><li>A return to a seasonably average number of rainy days and warmth explains the other half of May’s resurgence and possibly most of the substantial surprise to the consensus.</li><li>Consumer weakness seems asymmetrically relevant to the dovishly biased MPC. The rebound will not prevent it from announcing a premature rate cut in August.</li></ul><p></p>

UK retail sales more than fully recovered from April’s crash in May, although neither move looks like a fundamental signal. The early Easter explains half the volatility.A return to a seasonably average number of rainy days and warmth explains the other half of May’s resurgence and possibly most of the substantial surprise to the consensus.Consumer weakness seems asymmetrically relevant to the dovishly biased MPC. The rebound will not prevent it from announcing a premature rate cut in August.

UK: Retail Seasonally Recovers in Dry May