Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

FLASH: UK Inflation Surges on Clothing and Comms

FLASH: UK UR Falls Further Below BoE's NAIRU

UK Inflation: Awaiting Final Autumnal Ascent

Preview: Low UK Inflation and Unemployment

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

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<li>UK inflation looks likely to disappoint the consensus again in August, with the CPI and RPI inflation rates only rising to 2.7% and 3.7% respectively. The 2017 weight changes reduced the CPI’s August seasonal factor. Risks seem broadly balanced.</li>
<li>The LFS unemployment rate has declined for two consecutive months, but I don’t forecast another fall from 4.4% this month. Wage growth should increase, though, and I am 0.1pp above consensus on AWE inc-bonuses at 2.4% y-o-y 3mma.</li>
<li>
GBP weakness and energy…</li>
</ul>


UK inflation looks likely to disappoint the consensus again in August, with the CPI and RPI inflation rates only rising to 2.7% and 3.7% respectively. The 2017 weight changes reduced the CPI’s August seasonal factor. Risks seem broadly balanced.
The LFS unemployment rate has declined for two consecutive months, but I don’t forecast another fall from 4.4% this month. Wage growth should increase, though, and I am 0.1pp above consensus on AWE inc-bonuses at 2.4% y-o-y 3mma.

GBP weakness and energy…


UK Preview: Hawkish MPC, Soft Inflation, High Wages