Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Preview: UK Parliamentary Pushes on Plan B

Politics: Unusual UK Unity Promotes Plan B

FLASH: UK's No-Confidence Vote in May Day

FLASH: UK Political Palliative Sought Before Voting

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The UK parliament continues to show its opposition to everything, including a no deal Brexit. Recent amendments are more signalling than substance, though.</li>
<li>A political swerve to approve a deal based on the existing one remains the most likely scenario, in my view (55%). Brinkmanship leaves a crash out with no deal as a significant risk (30%), though, as it is the default outcome despite opposition.</li>
<li>Stopping the exit from the single market and customs union (15%) is appealing to many commentators, but it still looks more like hope over reality, in my view.</li>
</ul>


The UK parliament continues to show its opposition to everything, including a no deal Brexit. Recent amendments are more signalling than substance, though.
A political swerve to approve a deal based on the existing one remains the most likely scenario, in my view (55%). Brinkmanship leaves a crash out with no deal as a significant risk (30%), though, as it is the default outcome despite opposition.
Stopping the exit from the single market and customs union (15%) is appealing to many commentators, but it still looks more like hope over reality, in my view.


UK Politics: Swerve, Crash or Stop (55:30:15)