Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK Politics: Polls Converge on a Majority

UK Politics: Polls Still Point to a Small Majority

UK: Political Risk Subsides on a Massive Majority

UK: Bullish Trends Beneath Bias After Brexit

UK: Retail Sales Resilient with Real Wages in 3Q19

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>A general election now seems set to be held on 12 December. The Conservatives are likely to win a small majority and ratify its Brexit deal, although there is a bimodal distribution of its lead over Labour in the polls.</li>
<li>Most pollsters indicate a large majority with about a 10% probability of a hung parliament, while others indicate a 33% risk. That risk could decay with proximity to the vote, although I expect the outcome to lie in between the two sets of polls.</li>
<li>Sterling should have a complex relationship with the election result. I now see the relative probabilities of a deal, no deal and no Brexit at 65:20:15 (55:30:15 before).</li>
</ul>


A general election now seems set to be held on 12 December. The Conservatives are likely to win a small majority and ratify its Brexit deal, although there is a bimodal distribution of its lead over Labour in the polls.
Most pollsters indicate a large majority with about a 10% probability of a hung parliament, while others indicate a 33% risk. That risk could decay with proximity to the vote, although I expect the outcome to lie in between the two sets of polls.
Sterling should have a complex relationship with the election result. I now see the relative probabilities of a deal, no deal and no Brexit at 65:20:15 (55:30:15 before).


UK Politics: Election Payoff Profiles