Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Surveys Support 2Q19 Contraction Call

UK: Vacancies Reveal Risk to Recent Resilience

UK: Manufacturing’s Sprightly Spring-19

UK: Oil Weighs on 2Q19 More than Manufacturing

UK: PMI Payback in Apr-19 Still Below Reality

BoE: Gloomy Patience Postponing Policy Response

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>The sharp slide in the UK’s manufacturing PMI continued in Jun-19 as the headline fell by 1.4-points to 48.0 driven by the output balance diving 3.1-points to 47.2.</em></li>
<li><em>I continue to forecast a substantial manufacturing rebound of about 2.5% m-o-m in May. That would moderate the 2Q19 quarterly contraction to about 1.3%, which would be broadly consistent with the current PMI and CBI surveys.</em></li>
</ul>


The sharp slide in the UK’s manufacturing PMI continued in Jun-19 as the headline fell by 1.4-points to 48.0 driven by the output balance diving 3.1-points to 47.2.
I continue to forecast a substantial manufacturing rebound of about 2.5% m-o-m in May. That would moderate the 2Q19 quarterly contraction to about 1.3%, which would be broadly consistent with the current PMI and CBI surveys.


UK: IP Signs Converge on Contraction in 2Q19