Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

BoE: Rates Hit Third Base During Home Run

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Inflation repeated its tendency to exceed forecasts in Feb-22 as prices get pulled back towards their equilibrium, which seems almost 4% higher than the current level.</li>
<li>Headline rates still have a lot further to rise over the next two months, but there are some signs that underlying pressures are stabilising, albeit at excessively high levels. </li>
<li>The MPC remains likely to deliver a fourth back-to-back rate hike in May. We see the pace beyond that slowing as the excess in inflation and stimulus fades.</li>
</ul>


Inflation repeated its tendency to exceed forecasts in Feb-22 as prices get pulled back towards their equilibrium, which seems almost 4% higher than the current level.
Headline rates still have a lot further to rise over the next two months, but there are some signs that underlying pressures are stabilising, albeit at excessively high levels. 
The MPC remains likely to deliver a fourth back-to-back rate hike in May. We see the pace beyond that slowing as the excess in inflation and stimulus fades.


UK: Inflation Regime Rolling into Spring