Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK GDP Preview (Oct 11): Moderating Momentum?

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>GDP was unchanged for the second consecutive month in July, disappointing growth expectations. It is quickly decelerating back to its trend after recovering H2’s shortfall.</li><li>Growth in the PMI-consistent sectors has slowed abruptly, aligning with residual seasonality that should reach a trough nearby within the next two months.</li><li>Three quarters of GDP growth at least matching potential corroborates unemployment falling over the past year. Nonetheless, the BoE is likely to next cut again in November.</li></ul><p></p>

GDP was unchanged for the second consecutive month in July, disappointing growth expectations. It is quickly decelerating back to its trend after recovering H2’s shortfall.Growth in the PMI-consistent sectors has slowed abruptly, aligning with residual seasonality that should reach a trough nearby within the next two months.Three quarters of GDP growth at least matching potential corroborates unemployment falling over the past year. Nonetheless, the BoE is likely to next cut again in November.

UK: GDP Quickly Decelerating To Trend