Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Another surprisingly strong GDP growth rate in May has extended output’s above-trend rise to the point where the H1 excess broadly matches the shortfall from H2 2023.</li><li>Returning to trend would require flat output through Q3, but other indicators suggest growth is only slowing, not stalling, so that may be too pessimistic.</li><li>Activity data do not signal policy as overly tight, although unemployment suggests it is a little tight. Nonetheless, rate cuts remain likely as policymakers look elsewhere.</li></ul><p></p>

Another surprisingly strong GDP growth rate in May has extended output’s above-trend rise to the point where the H1 excess broadly matches the shortfall from H2 2023.Returning to trend would require flat output through Q3, but other indicators suggest growth is only slowing, not stalling, so that may be too pessimistic.Activity data do not signal policy as overly tight, although unemployment suggests it is a little tight. Nonetheless, rate cuts remain likely as policymakers look elsewhere.

UK: GDP Fills In the H2 Hole