Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Wage Revisions Provide a Hawkish Reminder

UK: Surveys Support 2Q19 Contraction Call

UK: Oil Weighs on 2Q19 More than Manufacturing

UK: PMI Payback in Apr-19 Still Below Reality

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

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<li><em>UK monthly GDP crashed by 0.4% m-o-m amid a record decline in the car manufacturing industry. The concentration of maintenance schedules should lead to a supportive unwind in the months ahead but that is too late for 2Q19’s health.</em></li>
<li><em>My tracking estimate for 2Q19 GDP growth has now collapsed by 0.4pp to a fall of -0.1% q-o-q. Although the shock should be transitory, the MPC is now likely to wait for confirmation before sending stronger guidance about its hawkish trade-off.</em></li>
</ul>


UK monthly GDP crashed by 0.4% m-o-m amid a record decline in the car manufacturing industry. The concentration of maintenance schedules should lead to a supportive unwind in the months ahead but that is too late for 2Q19’s health.
My tracking estimate for 2Q19 GDP growth has now collapsed by 0.4pp to a fall of -0.1% q-o-q. Although the shock should be transitory, the MPC is now likely to wait for confirmation before sending stronger guidance about its hawkish trade-off.


UK: GDP Fall Fades Hawkish Bias for Bank Rate