Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Credit provision has stabilised in the UK after the shock in Q4, albeit with secured lending stuck at its lows, despite falling mortgage rates.</li>
<li>Recent financial stability issues are unlikely to have as much impact but could tighten conditions if banks cut their credit supply. This risk would show in quoted rate spreads.</li>
<li>Corporate leverage is healthily low. Any credit crunch is likely to be isolated. However, inverted curves cut bank margins, discouraging lending, so they can be self-fulfilling.</li>
</ul>


Credit provision has stabilised in the UK after the shock in Q4, albeit with secured lending stuck at its lows, despite falling mortgage rates.
Recent financial stability issues are unlikely to have as much impact but could tighten conditions if banks cut their credit supply. This risk would show in quoted rate spreads.
Corporate leverage is healthily low. Any credit crunch is likely to be isolated. However, inverted curves cut bank margins, discouraging lending, so they can be self-fulfilling.


UK: Credit Not Crunched