Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Oil Weighs on 2Q19 More than Manufacturing

UK: PMIs Diverge as Bias Intensifies in Mar-19

FLASH: UK GDP Resurgence Raises 1Q19 Forecast

UK: IP Indicators Boom Above Peers in Mar-19

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

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<li><em>UK monthly GDP stayed surprisingly strong in Feb-19, growing 0.2% m-o-m after 0.5% in Jan-19. Services matched my bullish forecast and show no signs of matching the collapse in the PMI, but finance’s downward trend looks to be re-establishing.</em></li>
<li><em>Manufacturing and construction caused the upside surprise and are set to be highly supportive of GDP growth. With the economy firing on all cylinders, despite the prophecies of doom, I raise my bullish 1Q19 GDP growth forecast by 0.1pp to 0.5%.</em></li>
</ul>


UK monthly GDP stayed surprisingly strong in Feb-19, growing 0.2% m-o-m after 0.5% in Jan-19. Services matched my bullish forecast and show no signs of matching the collapse in the PMI, but finance’s downward trend looks to be re-establishing.
Manufacturing and construction caused the upside surprise and are set to be highly supportive of GDP growth. With the economy firing on all cylinders, despite the prophecies of doom, I raise my bullish 1Q19 GDP growth forecast by 0.1pp to 0.5%.


UK: 1Q19 GDP Growth Tracking up to 0.5%