Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

<p>Dollarization does not appear to be an 'active' decision by market participants. &nbsp;Unfortunately it is starting to cause issues for the banking sector, leading to rapid growth in off balance sheet derivative positions. &nbsp;Some banks are managing the gap, others seem to be struggling.</p><p>We also consider the factors contributing to the weakness of the Lira, the central bank is culpable.</p>

Dollarization does not appear to be an 'active' decision by market participants. &nbsp;Unfortunately it is starting to cause issues for the banking sector, leading to rapid growth in off balance sheet derivative positions. &nbsp;Some banks are managing the gap, others seem to be struggling.We also consider the factors contributing to the weakness of the Lira, the central bank is culpable.

TURKEY:  The 'accidental' Dollarization and what is 'off' bank's balance sheets