North Korea Nuclear Tensions: Beginning of an Endgame - Scenario Analysis of Likely Outcomes

US-N. Korea Summit: A Turning Point For North Asia Thaw – What the Investors Should Watch For

Inter-Korea Summit: Scenario Evidently Written and Directed by Kim; KEPCO Is Our Idea to Play It.

North Korea Buys a Short-Term Insurance Policy Underwritten by the Moon Administration

Strategist / Professor, Troika Advisory

Terence T. Lim, Ph.D.

Strategist / Professor

Troika Advisory

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

President Trump called off the summit with North Korea's Kim Jong Un following North Korea's bitter and angry pushbacks to the US demand for fast-track nuclear disarmament. North Korea's Kim seems to have already achieved important strategic goals - nuclear power status being taken seriously by the US for negotiation and economic lifeline through China. We noted earlier that the geopolitical risks stemming from North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs have had a binomial distribution (i.e., 0 or 1) regarding their effects on the South Korean economy and capital markets. The risk of a bad outcome has seemed too negative (i.e., 1 in the binomial distribution) that the investors have preferred assigning zero probability to it until it actually happens. Likewise, the opposite (i.e., a complete and peaceful resolution) was not discounted to the full extent by the investors as the process to reach the resolution should be fluid and prone to many setbacks. Therefore, we think the current event will have a very limited effect on the Korean capital markets. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/north-korea-nuclear-tensions-beginning-of-an-endgame-scenario-analysis-of-likely-outcomes" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18241">North Korea Nuclear Tensions: Beginning of an Endgame - Scenario Analysis of Likely Outcomes</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/us-n-korea-summit-a-turning-point-for-north-asia-thaw-what-the-investors-should-watch-for" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20237">US-N. Korea Summit: A Turning Point For North Asia Thaw – What the Investors Should Watch For</a>

President Trump called off the summit with North Korea's Kim Jong Un following North Korea's bitter and angry pushbacks to the US demand for fast-track nuclear disarmament. North Korea's Kim seems to have already achieved important strategic goals - nuclear power status being taken seriously by the US for negotiation and economic lifeline through China. We noted earlier that the geopolitical risks stemming from North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs have had a binomial distribution (i.e., 0 or 1) regarding their effects on the South Korean economy and capital markets. The risk of a bad outcome has seemed too negative (i.e., 1 in the binomial distribution) that the investors have preferred assigning zero probability to it until it actually happens. Likewise, the opposite (i.e., a complete and peaceful resolution) was not discounted to the full extent by the investors as the process to reach the resolution should be fluid and prone to many setbacks. Therefore, we think the current event will have a very limited effect on the Korean capital markets. North Korea Nuclear Tensions: Beginning of an Endgame - Scenario Analysis of Likely OutcomesUS-N. Korea Summit: A Turning Point For North Asia Thaw – What the Investors Should Watch For

Trump Canceled the Summit with Kim; Limited Effect on the Korean Capital Markets