Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

US Tariff Uncertainty Will Be Prolonged, but Markets Expect Easier Global Monetary Policy

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Fed Tapers QT to Pre-Empt Debt Ceiling Increase as Forward Interest Rate Guidance Remains Unchanged

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Surprises in the global economy were limited in 2024.  The second Trump administration aims to enact significant economic transformation, increasing the chances of major divergence between the US and Europe.</li>
<li>President-Elect Trump promised higher oil output to lower energy prices, although US production is already at an all-time high.  Restrictions on technology exports to China are likely to remain intact. </li>
<li>The prospect of significant US economic disruption raises the chances of the Fed having to reduce its policy rate more aggressively in 2025 than currently discounted in financial markets.</li>
</ul>


Surprises in the global economy were limited in 2024.  The second Trump administration aims to enact significant economic transformation, increasing the chances of major divergence between the US and Europe.
President-Elect Trump promised higher oil output to lower energy prices, although US production is already at an all-time high.  Restrictions on technology exports to China are likely to remain intact. 
The prospect of significant US economic disruption raises the chances of the Fed having to reduce its policy rate more aggressively in 2025 than currently discounted in financial markets.


Trump 2.0: Transformation and Disruption Present Economic Policy Challenges