Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Bad, Worse, & Worst | Ugly Q320 Results from Yunda, YTO Express, & STO Express

As Growth Accelerates, Alibaba's CaiNiao Network Is Pushing Aside Commodity-Type Express Firms

Best Inc. Is Closing Its Money-Losing 'Store+' Business, a Small but Positive Step Forward

As Profits Turn to Losses, STO Express Retreats from Growth Strategy. Is M&A Next?

Pressure Building: How Consolidation in China's Express Sector Might Look Over the Next Two Years

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express: ZTO HK Listing | August Pricing Still Weak | KEX IPO in Bangkok

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Bifurcated Chinese Express Market Developing

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Equity Bottom-Up

After moderating in August, headline express sector volume surged in September. Total parcel volume grew by 44.6% last month, and key inter-city volume was up almost 50%. 
Pricing remains weak, however. For all express shipments, ASPs fell by 12.2%, and the companies that report monthly numbers all reported YoY ASP declines of between 15% and 31%.
In other express sector news: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-idc-fluid-control-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18695:1" rel="noopener">STO Express (002468 CH)</a> pre-announced Q3 losses, we check on how <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23628:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express (ZTO US)</a>'s Hong Kong IPO has fared so far, and we note (again) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a> massive scale relative to its Chinese peers -- and it's incredible year of growth. 
We continue to rate SF Holding BUY as we expect it to continue to gain share from peers. We also recently upgraded <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/best-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25494:1" rel="noopener">BEST Inc (BEST US) </a>to BUY on our expectation that it could become an attractive target once sector M&amp;A takes off. Meanwhile, ZTO remains a SELL in our view.

After moderating in August, headline express sector volume surged in September. Total parcel volume grew by 44.6% last month, and key inter-city volume was up almost 50%. 
Pricing remains weak, however. For all express shipments, ASPs fell by 12.2%, and the companies that report monthly numbers all reported YoY ASP declines of between 15% and 31%.
In other express sector news: STO Express (002468 CH) pre-announced Q3 losses, we check on how ZTO Express (ZTO US)'s Hong Kong IPO has fared so far, and we note (again) S.F. Holding (002352 CH) massive scale relative to its Chinese peers -- and it's incredible year of growth. 
We continue to rate SF Holding BUY as we expect it to continue to gain share from peers. We also recently upgraded BEST Inc (BEST US) to BUY on our expectation that it could become an attractive target once sector M&amp;A takes off. Meanwhile, ZTO remains a SELL in our view. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express: Pricing Still Weak | STO Q3 Profit Warning | ZTO HK IPO Update

ZTO Express Cayman

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express: Pricing Still Weak | STO Q3 Profit Warning | ZTO HK IPO Update