Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Japan CorpGovReport Details: TSE "Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price" Details (Aug24)

Tokio Marine Holdings - Net Profit +54% YoY, Non Life Premiums & Investment Income Are Drivers

Thinking About The Toyota Tender Offer Buyback

Toyota Group Cross-Holding Structure Primer - Holdings, Unwind Progress, Buyback Policies, Etc

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With FY23 earnings in May, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> announced a ¥1trn buyback (410mm shares, 3.04%). Given shares were ¥3,599 the day before, it meant fewer shares or a Tender.</li>
<li>Like Honda (who hadn't bought pre-offering), Toyota hadn't bought back in the first couple of months. We knew there was bank and insurer overhang. That overhang lasts for years. </li>
<li>Today, Toyota announced an "organised" 410mm share ¥1trln Tender Offer Buyback. Several financial institutions have announced plans to tender. This provides guidance on supply/demand for the rest of the year.</li>
</ul>


With FY23 earnings in May, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced a ¥1trn buyback (410mm shares, 3.04%). Given shares were ¥3,599 the day before, it meant fewer shares or a Tender.
Like Honda (who hadn't bought pre-offering), Toyota hadn't bought back in the first couple of months. We knew there was bank and insurer overhang. That overhang lasts for years. 
Today, Toyota announced an "organised" 410mm share ¥1trln Tender Offer Buyback. Several financial institutions have announced plans to tender. This provides guidance on supply/demand for the rest of the year.


Toyota's BIG Buyback Via Tender Offer from Banks & Insurers

MS&AD Insurance

Toyota's BIG Buyback Via Tender Offer from Banks & Insurers