Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Securities analyst covering electronics, precision equipment & robotics, engineering, construction, transport and other sectors for more than 25 years in Japan and 3 years in Korea. Permanent resident of Japan.

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Management is guiding for single-digit sales and profit growth in FY Mar-23, but new orders fell 39% from Q2 to Q4 of last fiscal year.</li>
<li>The Book-to-Bill Ratio fell from 1.66 in Q2 to 1.01 in 4Q, but quarterly orders and sales both remained far above the levels recorded in the three years to Sep-21.</li>
<li>Even if the company does not drop into the red as it did in previous cycles, the downside risk to profits could be 50%. </li>
</ul>


Management is guiding for single-digit sales and profit growth in FY Mar-23, but new orders fell 39% from Q2 to Q4 of last fiscal year.
The Book-to-Bill Ratio fell from 1.66 in Q2 to 1.01 in 4Q, but quarterly orders and sales both remained far above the levels recorded in the three years to Sep-21.
Even if the company does not drop into the red as it did in previous cycles, the downside risk to profits could be 50%. 


TOWA (6315): Watch the Order Flow for an Entry Point

Towa Corp

TOWA (6315): Watch the Order Flow for an Entry Point