TOP: Solid Refinery Performance Drove 1Q22 Profit

TOP: Recovering Refinery Margin to Drive 3Q21 Earnings

TOP: Long Term Positive Outlook on Investment in Chandra Asri

TOP: Neutral Refinery and Weak Aromatics Outlook for 2H21

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect TOP to post a solid 4Q21 net profit of Bt5.1bn (-30% YoY, +146% QoQ).</li>
<li>The growth will be supported by solid spike in GRM. which should increase to US$5.5/bbl, up from US$1.2/bbl in 4Q20 and US$1.6/bbl in 3Q21,backed by strong rise in product spreads</li>
<li>The Aromatics &amp; LAB, and Lube base oil contribution should soften QoQ due to 25 to 50%decline in product spreads.However, overall base GIM should increase to US$7.1/bbl,(+97% YoY, +29% QoQ).</li>
</ul>


We expect TOP to post a solid 4Q21 net profit of Bt5.1bn (-30% YoY, +146% QoQ).
The growth will be supported by solid spike in GRM. which should increase to US$5.5/bbl, up from US$1.2/bbl in 4Q20 and US$1.6/bbl in 3Q21,backed by strong rise in product spreads
The Aromatics &amp; LAB, and Lube base oil contribution should soften QoQ due to 25 to 50%decline in product spreads.However, overall base GIM should increase to US$7.1/bbl,(+97% YoY, +29% QoQ).


TOP: Solid Refinery Margin to Drive 4Q21 Performance

Thai Oil Pcl

TOP: Solid Refinery Margin to Drive 4Q21 Performance