Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Toa Oil (5008) - The Dog Has Caught the Car, But Beware Mangalores

Toa Oil (5008) - Idemitsu Looking To The Next Attempt?

BREAKING! Dog Loses To Mangalore - Idemitsu Kosan Does Its Deal for Toa Oil (5008)

Toa Oil (5008) Tender Offer Update - Looks Bumpity.

Idemitsu Launches Lowball Tender Offer for Subsidiary Toa Oil (5008)

Toa Oil (5008) Tender Offer Updated Update - STILL Looks Bumpity

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

At the end of January 2021 when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toa-oil-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11021:1" rel="noopener">Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP)</a> announced its Q3 results and very big full-year forecast revision (discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toa-oil-5008-tender-offer-updated-update-still-looks-bumpity" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47625" rel="noopener">Toa Oil (5008) Tender Offer Updated Update - STILL Looks Bumpity</a>), the share price of Toa Oil was trading at ¥2800 which was just off a two-plus year high, and lead shareholder Cornwall Capital had reported upping their stake to 22.98% the day before. The change in annual forecast required a change in the Opinion Statement of the Target Company and that required a change in the Tender Offer Registration statement by Idemitsu, which required them to extend the Tender Offer Closing Date by 8 days to 15 February. In my last piece, I mooted the possibility that Idemitsu could announce a change in price at the time of its earnings on 9 February. It did not. I also put forth the problem of The Dog Catching The Car. If the dog chases the car, it's all fun. If the car stops and the driver gets out, the dog has to figure out what to do.Thinking Dogs can read on.

At the end of January 2021 when Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP) announced its Q3 results and very big full-year forecast revision (discussed in Toa Oil (5008) Tender Offer Updated Update - STILL Looks Bumpity), the share price of Toa Oil was trading at ¥2800 which was just off a two-plus year high, and lead shareholder Cornwall Capital had reported upping their stake to 22.98% the day before. The change in annual forecast required a change in the Opinion Statement of the Target Company and that required a change in the Tender Offer Registration statement by Idemitsu, which required them to extend the Tender Offer Closing Date by 8 days to 15 February. In my last piece, I mooted the possibility that Idemitsu could announce a change in price at the time of its earnings on 9 February. It did not. I also put forth the problem of The Dog Catching The Car. If the dog chases the car, it's all fun. If the car stops and the driver gets out, the dog has to figure out what to do.Thinking Dogs can read on.

Toa Oil (5008) Tender - Has the Dog Caught the Car?