ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

In Equity Sales and Research for more than 25 years covering Asian markets. Possesses in-depth knowledge of a wide range of companies, economies, and markets in Asia. Over his career, he has specialised in HK/China and ASEAN markets at various different Investment Banks, most recently heading equities in Indonesia for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Jakarta for more than three years. Whilst in Jakarta, he produced a well-read daily and weekly product on the Indonesian market, which included company visits, as well as political, economic and sector commentary. A former racing skier, who enjoys ultra-marathons and surfing in his spare time.

ASEAN Insight Provider

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This week in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> has been a busy one, with a multitude of fascinating insights, both bottom up and top down and thematic. I also include below feedback post a meeting with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/231" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:231:1">Unilever Indonesia Tbk Pt (UNVR IJ)</a> in Jakarta last week, which revealed some eye-opening changes in the local consumer landscape. <h2>This weeks insights in ASEAN in brief, please scroll down for more detail.</h2>In a two part insight series, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-new-thai-coons-part-i-class-of-2017" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12277">The New Thai-Coons (Part I): Class of 2017</a>, out erudite Thai Guru, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> highlights two lesser known Tycoons two made the Forbes list in 2017.   In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-new-thai-coons-part-2-class-of-2017" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12278">The New Thai-Coons (Part 2): Class of 2017</a>, he looks at three more industrialists in autos, power, and healthcare. In a follow-up insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/top-brass-reshuffling-issue-prompt-fake-quality-rice-issue" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12293">Top Brass Reshuffling Issue Prompt Fake Quality Rice Issue?</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1006" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006">Henry Soediarko</a> reveals a number of interesting conspiracy theories surrounding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12211" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12211:1">Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food (AISA IJ)</a>'s recent incident with the company suggesting rice fraud. All is not what it seems with this incident and it would not be the first time in Indonesia that this kind of issue has reared its ugly head.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ste-cybersecurity-and-airframe-services-drive-gains" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12317">STE: Cybersecurity and Airframe Services Drive Gains</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/756" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> takes a close look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1714" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1714:1">Singapore Tech Engineering (STE SP)</a> and focuses in on STE’s specialist software and engineering business, as well as its airframe maintenance business.   in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/agm-valuetronics-value-sp-fy2018-on-track-to-be-another-good-year-dividend-yield-still-4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12288">AGM Valuetronics (VALUE SP): FY2018 On Track to Be Another Good Year; Dividend Yield Still 4%</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1208" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> reports back from the company's AGM, which was attended by 60 shareholders, who fired off a barrage of questions.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thailand-has-asia-s-most-profitable-lender-ktc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12330">Thailand Has Asia’s Most Profitable Lender: KTC</a>, banking guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/12" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12">Daniel Tabbush</a> casts his expert eye over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20097" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20097:1">Krungthai Card Pcl (KTC TB)</a> which he sees is the ultimate play on consumer lending,in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dbs-2q17-profit-to-come-under-pressure-not-only-from-provisions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12341">DBS 2Q17 Profit to Come Under Pressure Not Only from Provisions</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/12" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12">Daniel Tabbush</a> notes that there are several reasons to assume lower 2Q17 net profit for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22:1">DBS Group Holdings Ltd (DBS SP)</a> compared with 1Q17. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vietnam-h1-2017-update" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12264">Vietnam H1 2017 Update</a>, our recently joined Vietnamese insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/844" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:844">BAOVIET Securities</a> takes us through in detail current issues surrounding the economy and the local stock market. They see some risk to GDP growth rates but find a positive liquidity environment.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indf-fertile-soil-for-agribusiness-operations" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12345">INDF: Fertile Soil for Agribusiness Operations</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/756" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> zeros in the company's Agribusiness which saw revenues grow by 40% YoY in 1Q17 due to better productivity and high Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices and should rise further backed by continuous planting and some plantations are to mature soon. in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/malaysia-has-najib-become-desperate" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12346">Malaysia: Has Najib Become Desperate?</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/35" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:35">Manu Bhaskaran</a> suggests some desperation from Prime Minister Najib Razak, who has announced a generous package of support for oil palm smallholders who operate under the umbrella of the government’s Federal Land Development Authority (FELDA). Separately, he has offered Indian Muslims the chance to be given the status of “Bumiputeras” or indigenous people of Malaysia who are given special privileges by the government.in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesia-external-risks-are-the-biggest-threat" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12347">Indonesia: External Risks Are the Biggest Threat</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/48" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:48">Jason Tan</a> examines recent trade numbers from Indonesia and sees this as a potential risk to growth, although the numbers are heavily skewed by the Lebaran festive season. He adds that moving forward, there is no cause for concern, for the time being, as the trade downturn will likely reverse in subsequent months amidst a continued blossoming of global demand.in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cwt-limited-what-s-the-long-stop-date-again" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12358">CWT Limited: What’s the Long Stop Date Again?</a>, our own <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/263" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:263">Pranav Rao</a> notes that since our previous note on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/618" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:618:1">CWT Ltd (CWT SP)</a>, there has been a lot of press on concerns over debt levels at HNA Group. In his insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/recent-upcoming-deals-in-thailand-yo" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12367">Recent/Upcoming Deals in Thailand</a>, our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> takes a look at some of the upcoming deals in Thailand including; Hitachi’s Thai unit making a tender offer for BAT-3K, TOA’s tender offer of Sherwood, and the potential management buyout of Q-CON.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/inkp-paper-producer-enjoys-stacking-demand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12376">INKP: Paper Producer Enjoys Stacking Demand</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/756" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> looks at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20064" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20064:1">Indah Kiat Pulp &amp; Paper Tbk (INKP IJ)</a>, Indonesia’s largest pulp and paper-related products producer by sales. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/buoyant-world-trade-run-the-risk-of-protectionism" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12377">Buoyant World Trade Runs the Risk of Protectionism</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/35" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:35">Manu Bhaskaran</a> notes that global trade remains vigorous with lead indicators flashing positive across the board, and this is sustaining economic growth across emerging Asian economies.in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thailand-update-some-doubt-ahead-an-activist-king" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12378">Thailand Update: Some Doubt Ahead; an Activist King</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/48" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:48">Jason Tan</a> maintains his stance that the Thai economy is firmly on an upward trajectory. However, the recent slump in sentiment on the ground is worth noting as it highlights potential weak spots in the Thai economy.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amazon-singapore-all-signs-point-to-a-launch-this-week-perhaps-as-early-as-tomorrow-dontsaybojio" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12380">Amazon Singapore: All Signs Point to a Launch This Week, Perhaps as Early as Tomorrow. #dontsaybojio</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2">Raghav Kapoor</a> continues to bang the drum on the potential negative impact that Amazon's arrival in Singapore could have on the traditional retail landscape.  In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/malaysian-telcos-a-negative-sum-game" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:3213">Malaysian Telcos: A Negative Sum Game</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/151" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:151">New Street Research</a> continue to hold a negative view on Malaysian Telcos. The sector's aggregate revenues, and therefore EBITDA and EPS look now to be in long term decline for the three listed wireless companies.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rht-health-trust-rht-sp-is-india-focused-business-trust-on-kkr-shopping-list" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12348">RHT Health Trust (RHT SP): Is India Focused Business Trust on KKR Shopping List?</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1208" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> takes a close look at the potential sale of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13447" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13447:1">RHT Health Trust (RHT SP)</a> and updates on the company's business post a meeting with management.In his insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scma-in-touch-with-the-modern-world-on-the-ground-in-j-town" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12307">SCMA - In Touch with the Modern World</a>, former Jakartan <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/937" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937">Angus Mackintosh</a> finds plenty to cheer about post a meeting with the company in Jakarta. It has seen a distinct recovery in ad spend from local consumer brands and especially internet companies.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ocbc-group-profit-inflated-from-geh-much-of-which-is-non-operational" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12403">OCBC Group Profit Inflated from GEH, Much of Which Is Non-Operational</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/12" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12">Daniel Tabbush</a> notes that without <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13993" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1">Great Eastern Holdings Ltd (GE SP)</a> strong performance (+200% in 2Q17), OCBC’s headline profit would not be so strong, with bank only profit growth at 5% YoY in 2Q17.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jcnc-net-profit-rises-alongside-regional-auto-demand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12406">JCNC: Net Profit Rises Alongside Regional Auto Demand</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/756" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> works his magic on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/347" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage Ltd (JCNC SP)</a>, which has businesses ranging from autos to financial services and property, which are showing signs of improvement. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/agm-accordia-golf-trust-agt-sp-management-hopeful-to-inject-assets-in-next-12-months" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12405">AGM Accordia Golf Trust (AGT SP): Management Hopeful to Inject Assets in Next 12 Months</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1208" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> revisits this business trust post attending the company's AGM, along with 150 other investors. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesian-retail-the-war-of-the-worlds-has-begun-alibaba-to-invest-in-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12409">Indonesian Retail - The War of the Worlds Has Begun - Alibaba to Invest in Tokopedia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/937" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937">Angus Mackintosh</a> highlights the huge significance to the future of retailing in Indonesia of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/787" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1">Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA US)</a>'s planned $500m investment into Tokopedia. It strikes a note of caution for tradition retailer such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5230" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1">PT Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a> and brings into question the investments made into local start ups such as <a href="http://www.mataharimall.com" target="_blank">www.mataharimall.com</a>, given the firepower of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/787" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1">Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA US)</a>.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/noble-group-garage-sale-means-a-smaller-business-fve-lowered-to-sgd-0-48" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12438">Noble Group Garage Sale Means a Smaller Business; FVE Lowered to SGD 0.48</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/146" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:146">Morningstar</a> suggests that Noble Group’s plans to sell its global oil and gas trading business and to shrink its trading activities to just the coal energy and metals arena appears to be a viable solution to the company’s current difficulties but makes its overall business less attractive. Contact: angus.mackintosh@smartkarma.com

This week in ASEAN@Smartkarma has been a busy one, with a multitude of fascinating insights, both bottom up and top down and thematic. I also include below feedback post a meeting with Unilever Indonesia Tbk Pt (UNVR IJ) in Jakarta last week, which revealed some eye-opening changes in the local consumer landscape. This weeks insights in ASEAN in brief, please scroll down for more detail.In a two part insight series, The New Thai-Coons (Part I): Class of 2017, out erudite Thai Guru, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA highlights two lesser known Tycoons two made the Forbes list in 2017.   In The New Thai-Coons (Part 2): Class of 2017, he looks at three more industrialists in autos, power, and healthcare. In a follow-up insight, Top Brass Reshuffling Issue Prompt Fake Quality Rice Issue?, Henry Soediarko reveals a number of interesting conspiracy theories surrounding Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food (AISA IJ)'s recent incident with the company suggesting rice fraud. All is not what it seems with this incident and it would not be the first time in Indonesia that this kind of issue has reared its ugly head.In STE: Cybersecurity and Airframe Services Drive Gains, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA takes a close look at Singapore Tech Engineering (STE SP) and focuses in on STE’s specialist software and engineering business, as well as its airframe maintenance business.   in AGM Valuetronics (VALUE SP): FY2018 On Track to Be Another Good Year; Dividend Yield Still 4%, Nicolas Van Broekhoven reports back from the company's AGM, which was attended by 60 shareholders, who fired off a barrage of questions.In Thailand Has Asia’s Most Profitable Lender: KTC, banking guru Daniel Tabbush casts his expert eye over Krungthai Card Pcl (KTC TB) which he sees is the ultimate play on consumer lending,in DBS 2Q17 Profit to Come Under Pressure Not Only from Provisions, Daniel Tabbush notes that there are several reasons to assume lower 2Q17 net profit for DBS Group Holdings Ltd (DBS SP) compared with 1Q17. In Vietnam H1 2017 Update, our recently joined Vietnamese insight provider BAOVIET Securities takes us through in detail current issues surrounding the economy and the local stock market. They see some risk to GDP growth rates but find a positive liquidity environment.In INDF: Fertile Soil for Agribusiness Operations, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA zeros in the company's Agribusiness which saw revenues grow by 40% YoY in 1Q17 due to better productivity and high Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices and should rise further backed by continuous planting and some plantations are to mature soon. in Malaysia: Has Najib Become Desperate?, Manu Bhaskaran suggests some desperation from Prime Minister Najib Razak, who has announced a generous package of support for oil palm smallholders who operate under the umbrella of the government’s Federal Land Development Authority (FELDA). Separately, he has offered Indian Muslims the chance to be given the status of “Bumiputeras” or indigenous people of Malaysia who are given special privileges by the government.in Indonesia: External Risks Are the Biggest Threat, Jason Tan examines recent trade numbers from Indonesia and sees this as a potential risk to growth, although the numbers are heavily skewed by the Lebaran festive season. He adds that moving forward, there is no cause for concern, for the time being, as the trade downturn will likely reverse in subsequent months amidst a continued blossoming of global demand.in CWT Limited: What’s the Long Stop Date Again?, our own Pranav Rao notes that since our previous note on CWT Ltd (CWT SP), there has been a lot of press on concerns over debt levels at HNA Group. In his insight, Recent/Upcoming Deals in Thailand, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA takes a look at some of the upcoming deals in Thailand including; Hitachi’s Thai unit making a tender offer for BAT-3K, TOA’s tender offer of Sherwood, and the potential management buyout of Q-CON.In INKP: Paper Producer Enjoys Stacking Demand, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA looks at Indah Kiat Pulp &amp; Paper Tbk (INKP IJ), Indonesia’s largest pulp and paper-related products producer by sales. In Buoyant World Trade Runs the Risk of Protectionism, Manu Bhaskaran notes that global trade remains vigorous with lead indicators flashing positive across the board, and this is sustaining economic growth across emerging Asian economies.in Thailand Update: Some Doubt Ahead; an Activist King, Jason Tan maintains his stance that the Thai economy is firmly on an upward trajectory. However, the recent slump in sentiment on the ground is worth noting as it highlights potential weak spots in the Thai economy.In Amazon Singapore: All Signs Point to a Launch This Week, Perhaps as Early as Tomorrow. #dontsaybojio, Raghav Kapoor continues to bang the drum on the potential negative impact that Amazon's arrival in Singapore could have on the traditional retail landscape.  In Malaysian Telcos: A Negative Sum Game, our friends at New Street Research continue to hold a negative view on Malaysian Telcos. The sector's aggregate revenues, and therefore EBITDA and EPS look now to be in long term decline for the three listed wireless companies.In RHT Health Trust (RHT SP): Is India Focused Business Trust on KKR Shopping List?, Nicolas Van Broekhoven takes a close look at the potential sale of RHT Health Trust (RHT SP) and updates on the company's business post a meeting with management.In his insight, SCMA - In Touch with the Modern World, former Jakartan Angus Mackintosh finds plenty to cheer about post a meeting with the company in Jakarta. It has seen a distinct recovery in ad spend from local consumer brands and especially internet companies.In OCBC Group Profit Inflated from GEH, Much of Which Is Non-Operational, Daniel Tabbush notes that without Great Eastern Holdings Ltd (GE SP) strong performance (+200% in 2Q17), OCBC’s headline profit would not be so strong, with bank only profit growth at 5% YoY in 2Q17.In JCNC: Net Profit Rises Alongside Regional Auto Demand, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA works his magic on Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage Ltd (JCNC SP), which has businesses ranging from autos to financial services and property, which are showing signs of improvement. In AGM Accordia Golf Trust (AGT SP): Management Hopeful to Inject Assets in Next 12 Months, Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits this business trust post attending the company's AGM, along with 150 other investors. In Indonesian Retail - The War of the Worlds Has Begun - Alibaba to Invest in Tokopedia, Angus Mackintosh highlights the huge significance to the future of retailing in Indonesia of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA US)'s planned $500m investment into Tokopedia. It strikes a note of caution for tradition retailer such as PT Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) and brings into question the investments made into local start ups such as www.mataharimall.com, given the firepower of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA US).In Noble Group Garage Sale Means a Smaller Business; FVE Lowered to SGD 0.48, Morningstar suggests that Noble Group’s plans to sell its global oil and gas trading business and to shrink its trading activities to just the coal energy and metals arena appears to be a viable solution to the company’s current difficulties but makes its overall business less attractive. Contact: angus.mackintosh@smartkarma.com

Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited (TFG TB)

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Thai-Coons, Telcos, and the Modern World