ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

In Equity Sales and Research for more than 25 years covering Asian markets. Possesses in-depth knowledge of a wide range of companies, economies, and markets in Asia. Over his career, he has specialised in HK/China and ASEAN markets at various different Investment Banks, most recently heading equities in Indonesia for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Jakarta for more than three years. Whilst in Jakarta, he produced a well-read daily and weekly product on the Indonesian market, which included company visits, as well as political, economic and sector commentary. A former racing skier, who enjoys ultra-marathons and surfing in his spare time.

ASEAN Insight Provider

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The week in ASEAN saw a pickup in activity after last week's Hari Raya holidays, with a note on Pension lender <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/134" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:134:1">Bank Pmbngn Daerh Jawa Brt Dn Btn Tbk Pt (BJBR IJ)</a> from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1079" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1079">Johannes Salim, CFA</a> where he errs on the side of caution. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/605" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:605">Daniel Hellberg</a> comments on some mixed Chinese tourist numbers in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chinese-tourist-flows-within-asia-region-continue-to-show-dramatic-shift-vs-2016-trends" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:11827">Chinese Tourist Flows Within Asia Region Continue to Show Dramatic Shift Vs. 2016 Trends</a>, whilst <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/937" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937">Angus Mackintosh</a> looks at the state of play for hotels &amp; hospitality in ASEAN In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asean-hotels-hospitality-the-russians-are-coming-on-the-ground-in-j-town" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:11438">ASEAN Hotels &amp; Hospitality - The Russians Are Coming</a>.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> writes on the state of the Thai economy both internally and externally, is a two-part series <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-macro-watch-part-1-external-strength-internal-weakness" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:11844">Thai Macro Watch (Part 1): External Strength, Internal Weakness</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-macro-watch-part-2-policy-divergence-portfolio-thoughts" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:11859">Thai Macro Watch (Part 2): Policy Divergence &amp; Portfolio Thoughts</a>. He also comments on recent crackdowns on labour, which could prove counterproductive in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thailand-s-new-labor-crisis" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:11904">Thailand’s New Labor Crisis</a> and on the media sector in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-media-spotlight-a-softer-q3-17" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:11956">Thai Media Spotlight: A Softer Q3’17</a>.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/756" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> works his magic on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6359" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6359:1">Hana Microelectronics Pcl (HANA TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17462" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17462:1">Mega Lifesciences Pcl (MEGA TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15806" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15806:1">Millcon Steel Pcl (MILL TB)</a> in Thailand, whilst <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/35" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:35">Manu Bhaskaran</a> in a nostalgic two-part series, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/twenty-years-after-the-asian-crisis-what-are-the-prospects-for-the-region-part-1" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:11865">Twenty Years After the Asian Crisis, What Are the Prospects for the Region? (Part 1)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/twenty-years-after-the-asian-crisis-what-are-the-prospects-for-the-region-part-2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:11866">Twenty Years After the Asian Crisis, What Are the Prospects for the Region? (Part 2)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/35" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:35">Manu Bhaskaran</a> of Centennial Advisors looks back a the Asian Crisis of 1997 and examines what has changed since the crisis cratered what was a preeminent destination for trade and investment. in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/philippines-crisis-jeopardises-peace-process" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:11867">the Philippines: Crisis Jeopardises Peace Process</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/48" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:48">Jason Tan</a> highlights that the Marawi crisis the Philippines in continues to rage on, with the Armed Forces missing a series of self-imposed deadlines to oust the jihadist Maute group from the city of Marawi. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-residential-saving-on-toast-today-might-not-mean-a-home-later" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:11761">Singapore Residential - Saving on Toast Today Might Not Mean a Home Later</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/19" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:19">Bjorn Sprengers</a> of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/97" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:97">PropertyGuru</a> notes that Millennials were recently criticised for not being more prudent in their habits and lays out some fascinating thoughts on how the next generation may find their way onto the property ladder.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/discover-singapore-disa-disa-sp-successful-wal-mart-proof-of-concept-speculative-story-stock" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:11870">Discover Singapore: DiSa (DISA SP), Successful Wal-Mart Proof of Concept = Speculative Story Stock</a>, our small-cap guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1208" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> looks at concept stock <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15058" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15058:1">DiSa (DISA SP)</a>, which offers an anti-theft protection system to retailers which make theft from stores almost impossible. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trends-in-baked-goods-and-biscuits-in-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:11884">Trends in Baked Goods and Biscuits in Thailand</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/483" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:483">Euromonitor International Ltd.</a> take a close look at this high growth market, where modern trends have bolstered the consumption of cakes and pastries over the last five years in Thailand.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indofood-agri-resources-ageing-plantations-limit-growth-prospects" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:11899">Indofood Agri Resources: Ageing Plantations Limit Growth Prospects</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1364" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1364">Nandini Vijayaraghavan, CFA</a> takes a deep dive on this Singapore-listed Indonesian palm oil play. Her main concerns on the company as centred around its ageing plantations and working capital cycle. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/we-re-initiate-coverage-on-st-engineering-keeping-our-narrow-moat-rating" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:11937">We Re-Initiate Coverage on ST Engineering, Keeping Our Narrow Moat Rating</a>, our friends at Morningstar believe STE’s attractiveness is underpinned by the intangible assets it derives from being Singapore’s main defence contractor. <h2>On the Ground - A Ramadan rush a little less hasty</h2>The run-up to Ramadan is hectic, to say the least, with families preparing to "Pulang Kampung" or "'Mudik", which is the return to the village or town from whence they came. Like Christmas in the Christian world, families gather bearing gifts for each other.  This will mean a visit to the department store or DIY store to purchase a fitting gift and for some, it will be the only retail therapy for the year. This is reflected most clearly in the seasonal sales mix for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12266" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12266:1">Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Pt (RALS IJ)</a>, will often register 40% or more of its annual sales over the two months spanning Ramadan. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12808" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1">Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5230" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1">PT Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18684" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1">Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk Pt (MAPI IJ)</a> are also beneficiaries, though to a lesser extent. Overall retail sales for June have been mixed Ramadan sales up +5-6% versus 2016's +16%, according to the Retailers Association Sales of electronics for 2Q17 were flattish versus 2Q16's +30% growth.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12808" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1">Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ)</a> released some pretty impressive +22.8% SSSG for June, boosted by seasonal Ramadan demand. YTD SSSG stands at +10.5%. SSSG for outside Java for June increased +24.1%, Java ex-Jakarta +23.5% and Jakarta +20.5%. It will be interesting to see the performance in July and take a blended two-month view. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12808" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1">Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ)</a> looks like a standout, with a long run of very positive momentum behind its SSSG this year and share price reflects this. In a previous insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ace-hardware-freshly-made-sheets-on-the-ground-in-j-town" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:11092:1">ACE Hardware - Freshly Made Sheets</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/937" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937">Angus Mackintosh</a> analyses the reasons behind the pickup in SSSG throughout this year.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12266" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12266:1">Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Pt (RALS IJ)</a> is the most direct Ramadan play, saw sales come in at circa 25% of forecast FY17 sales versus historic numbers of 40-60% over the period. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18684" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1">Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk Pt (MAPI IJ)</a> 's Sogo Ramadan sales come in at 20% of FY17E vs a 40% target. The longer term story for Ramayana remains intact as it continues with its "transformation program" for the company's ageing department stores, led by the founder's daughter, who is now at the helm of the company. It transformed a total of 13 stores in 2016 and has plans for a total of 20 in 2017, with sales at transformed stores generally seeing an increase of 15% under the new format. It continues to work closely with celebrities in its branding and promotional activities. It is also consolidating its brand portfolio, with a focus on ten key brands. The recent correction in the share price provides a buying opportunity. Please see my recent insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ramayana-celebrity-transformation-on-the-ground-in-j-town" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:10419">Ramayana - Celebrity Transformation</a>.<div class="content-caption">A Ramadan less busy</div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/029/423/original/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-09%20at%2023.10.55.png?1499613082" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="29423"></figure>

The week in ASEAN saw a pickup in activity after last week's Hari Raya holidays, with a note on Pension lender Bank Pmbngn Daerh Jawa Brt Dn Btn Tbk Pt (BJBR IJ) from Johannes Salim, CFA where he errs on the side of caution. Daniel Hellberg comments on some mixed Chinese tourist numbers in Chinese Tourist Flows Within Asia Region Continue to Show Dramatic Shift Vs. 2016 Trends, whilst Angus Mackintosh looks at the state of play for hotels &amp; hospitality in ASEAN In ASEAN Hotels &amp; Hospitality - The Russians Are Coming.Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA writes on the state of the Thai economy both internally and externally, is a two-part series Thai Macro Watch (Part 1): External Strength, Internal Weakness and Thai Macro Watch (Part 2): Policy Divergence &amp; Portfolio Thoughts. He also comments on recent crackdowns on labour, which could prove counterproductive in Thailand’s New Labor Crisis and on the media sector in Thai Media Spotlight: A Softer Q3’17.Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA works his magic on Hana Microelectronics Pcl (HANA TB), Mega Lifesciences Pcl (MEGA TB), Millcon Steel Pcl (MILL TB) in Thailand, whilst Manu Bhaskaran in a nostalgic two-part series, Twenty Years After the Asian Crisis, What Are the Prospects for the Region? (Part 1) and Twenty Years After the Asian Crisis, What Are the Prospects for the Region? (Part 2), Manu Bhaskaran of Centennial Advisors looks back a the Asian Crisis of 1997 and examines what has changed since the crisis cratered what was a preeminent destination for trade and investment. in the Philippines: Crisis Jeopardises Peace Process, Jason Tan highlights that the Marawi crisis the Philippines in continues to rage on, with the Armed Forces missing a series of self-imposed deadlines to oust the jihadist Maute group from the city of Marawi. In Singapore Residential - Saving on Toast Today Might Not Mean a Home Later, Bjorn Sprengers of PropertyGuru notes that Millennials were recently criticised for not being more prudent in their habits and lays out some fascinating thoughts on how the next generation may find their way onto the property ladder.In Discover Singapore: DiSa (DISA SP), Successful Wal-Mart Proof of Concept = Speculative Story Stock, our small-cap guru Nicolas Van Broekhoven looks at concept stock DiSa (DISA SP), which offers an anti-theft protection system to retailers which make theft from stores almost impossible. In Trends in Baked Goods and Biscuits in Thailand, our friends at Euromonitor International Ltd. take a close look at this high growth market, where modern trends have bolstered the consumption of cakes and pastries over the last five years in Thailand.In Indofood Agri Resources: Ageing Plantations Limit Growth Prospects, Nandini Vijayaraghavan, CFA takes a deep dive on this Singapore-listed Indonesian palm oil play. Her main concerns on the company as centred around its ageing plantations and working capital cycle. In We Re-Initiate Coverage on ST Engineering, Keeping Our Narrow Moat Rating, our friends at Morningstar believe STE’s attractiveness is underpinned by the intangible assets it derives from being Singapore’s main defence contractor. On the Ground - A Ramadan rush a little less hastyThe run-up to Ramadan is hectic, to say the least, with families preparing to "Pulang Kampung" or "'Mudik", which is the return to the village or town from whence they came. Like Christmas in the Christian world, families gather bearing gifts for each other.  This will mean a visit to the department store or DIY store to purchase a fitting gift and for some, it will be the only retail therapy for the year. This is reflected most clearly in the seasonal sales mix for Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Pt (RALS IJ), will often register 40% or more of its annual sales over the two months spanning Ramadan. Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ), PT Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)  and Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk Pt (MAPI IJ) are also beneficiaries, though to a lesser extent. Overall retail sales for June have been mixed Ramadan sales up +5-6% versus 2016's +16%, according to the Retailers Association Sales of electronics for 2Q17 were flattish versus 2Q16's +30% growth.Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) released some pretty impressive +22.8% SSSG for June, boosted by seasonal Ramadan demand. YTD SSSG stands at +10.5%. SSSG for outside Java for June increased +24.1%, Java ex-Jakarta +23.5% and Jakarta +20.5%. It will be interesting to see the performance in July and take a blended two-month view. Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) looks like a standout, with a long run of very positive momentum behind its SSSG this year and share price reflects this. In a previous insight, ACE Hardware - Freshly Made Sheets, Angus Mackintosh analyses the reasons behind the pickup in SSSG throughout this year.  Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Pt (RALS IJ) is the most direct Ramadan play, saw sales come in at circa 25% of forecast FY17 sales versus historic numbers of 40-60% over the period. Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk Pt (MAPI IJ) 's Sogo Ramadan sales come in at 20% of FY17E vs a 40% target. The longer term story for Ramayana remains intact as it continues with its "transformation program" for the company's ageing department stores, led by the founder's daughter, who is now at the helm of the company. It transformed a total of 13 stores in 2016 and has plans for a total of 20 in 2017, with sales at transformed stores generally seeing an increase of 15% under the new format. It continues to work closely with celebrities in its branding and promotional activities. It is also consolidating its brand portfolio, with a focus on ten key brands. The recent correction in the share price provides a buying opportunity. Please see my recent insight, Ramayana - Celebrity Transformation.A Ramadan less busy

Airports Corporation Of Viet Nam (ACV VN)

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Ramadan, Russians and Hot-Pots