ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

In Equity Sales and Research for more than 25 years covering Asian markets. Possesses in-depth knowledge of a wide range of companies, economies, and markets in Asia. Over his career, he has specialised in HK/China and ASEAN markets at various different Investment Banks, most recently heading equities in Indonesia for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Jakarta for more than three years. Whilst in Jakarta, he produced a well-read daily and weekly product on the Indonesian market, which included company visits, as well as political, economic and sector commentary. A former racing skier, who enjoys ultra-marathons and surfing in his spare time.

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Myanmar Consumer discretionary / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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This past week's offering of Insights across <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up pieces. Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. 
I also include in the detailed section initial notes from a company visit last week to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20589" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20589:1">Sentul City Tbk Pt (BKSL IJ)</a> following a visit to the township and ask the question, "Is this a future Serpong in the making?" 
</div><h2>Macro Insights</h2>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesian-politics-weekly-poverty-drops-fmi-financing-questioned-widodo-polls-well-kpk-arrests" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22335">Indonesian Politics Weekly: Poverty Drops; FMI Financing Questioned; Widodo Polls Well; KPK Arrests</a> political insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2060" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2060">Kevin O’Rourke</a> comments on the most important news in Indonesian politics over and the last week. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesia-rumour-mill-going-into-overdrive-over-2019-elections" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22186">Indonesia: Rumour Mill Going into Overdrive over 2019 Elections</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/35" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:35">Manu Bhaskaran</a> comments on recent developments surrounding the selection of President Jokowi's running mate for next year's election.  In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-set-for-policy-tightening-in-oct-18-barring-severe-trade-fallout" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22199">Singapore: Set for Policy Tightening in Oct 18, Barring Severe Trade Fallout</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/48" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:48">Jason Tan</a> examines recent economic numbers coming out of Singapore and assesses the likelihood of a monetary tightening at the next policy meeting. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thailand-government-measures-to-inject-cyclical-growth-impetus" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22234">Thailand: Government Measures to Inject Cyclical Growth Impetus</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/48" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:48">Jason Tan</a> zeros in on the Thai Economy post recent comments from the government on increasing fiscal spending.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/philippine-peso-no-respite-in-sight-for-the-embattled-currency" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22235">Philippine Peso: No Respite in Sight for the Embattled Currency</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1567" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1567">Nicholas Chia</a> puts forward his views on the Philippine peso. He notes that the economy may be clocking impressive growth rates in recent years, but that has led to burgeoning macroeconomic imbalances that are increasingly under scrutiny.  <h2>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h2>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sari-roti-long-term-positive-but-no-near-term-catalyst-in-fy-2018" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:21939">Sari (ROTI): Long-Term Positive But No near Term Catalyst in FY 2018</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1006" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006">Henry Soediarko</a> zeros in on Indonesian bread maker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1181" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1181:1">Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk Pt (ROTI IJ)</a>, which he likes long-term but sees no near-term catalysts.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/arwana-citramulia-2q18-update-improving-product-mix-accelerates-earnings-growth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22224">Arwana Citramulia 2Q18 Update - Improving Product Mix Accelerates Earnings Growth</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1763" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1763">Lloyd Moffatt</a> provides an update on Indonesia's lowest cost tile manufacturer and continues to take a positive view.  In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xl-axiata-conquering-the-provinces-on-the-ground-in-j-town" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:21896">XL Axiata - Conquering the Provinces</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/937" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937">Angus Mackintosh</a> provides an update on the company following a visit in Jakarta. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15028" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1">XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL IJ)</a> continues to be the most interesting growth story amongst the Indonesian telcos. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/digi-digi-mk-2q18-results-show-continued-revenue-growth-on-rising-internet-use" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22253">DIGI (DIGI MK) 2Q18 Results Show Continued Revenue Growth on Rising Internet Use.</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/151" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:151">New Street Research</a> circle back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/945" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:945:1">Digi.Com Bhd (DIGI MK)</a> and find some potential rays of light for the company.  In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/planb-outdoor-media-leader-eyes-sustainable-growth-platforms" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22179">PLANB: Outdoor Media Leader Eyes Sustainable Growth Platforms</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/965" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965">Country Group</a> zero in on Thai media player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24702" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24702:1">Plan B Media Pcl (PLANB TB)</a> and take a positive view. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/astra-international-opportunities-into-a-strategic-low" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22215">Astra International Opportunities into a Strategic Low</a>, technical insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/381" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:381">Thomas Schroeder</a> puts his view on the prospects for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/46" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1">Astra International Tbk Pt (ASII IJ)</a>.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wheelock-properties-macro-break-point-and-projection-target" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22219">Wheelock Properties Macro Break Point and Projection Target</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/381" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:381">Thomas Schroeder</a> provides us with his technical view on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3197" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3197:1">Wheelock Properties (S) Ltd (WP SP)</a>. He finds <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3197" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3197:1">Wheelock Properties (S) Ltd (WP SP)</a> chart compelling enough to present some key pivot points in a brief note as well as breakout projection targets.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wheelock-properties-to-privatise" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22294">Wheelock Properties - To Privatise</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/25" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25">Travis Lundy</a> presents us with his views on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3197" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3197:1">Wheelock Properties (S) Ltd (WP SP)</a> following a series of insights on the company and news that it will privatise. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/arwana-citramulia-arna-ij-cementing-its-recovery-on-the-ground-in-j-town" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22134">Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) - Cementing Its Recovery</a>, former Jakartan <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/937" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937">Angus Mackintosh</a> presents his views on the company following a company visit in Jakarta. He suggests that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17042" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17042:1">Arwana Citramulia Tbk Pt (ARNA IJ)</a> continues to be one of the best-managed industrials in Indonesia, with a strong track record of good corporate governance. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/arwana-citramulia-arna-ij-cementing-its-recovery-on-the-ground-in-j-town" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22134"></a>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/unloved-undervalued-adding-golden-agri-to-our-list-of-5-yr-doubles" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22237">Unloved &amp; Undervalued; Adding Golden Agri to Our List of 5-Yr Doubles</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2362" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2362">Charles Spencer</a> presents us with his views on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1142" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1142:1">Golden Agri Resources Ltd (GGR SP)</a>. He is adding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1142" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1142:1">Golden Agri Resources Ltd (GGR SP)</a> to his list of 5-year doubles.  In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lippo-karawaci-buying-time-to-avert-distress" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22285">Lippo Karawaci: Buying Time To Avert Distress</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/751" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:751">Bondcritic</a> initiate coverage on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3121" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3121:1">Lippo Karawaci Tbk Pt (LPKR IJ)</a> (“LK”) with a Neutral recommendation on the LPKRIJ complex and a tactical OVERWEIGHT recommendation on LPKRIJ 26s. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/capitaland-commercial-trust-keep-circumspect-in-terms-of-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22222">Capitaland Commercial Trust: Keep Circumspect in Terms of Valuation</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1786" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1786">Anni Kum</a> analyses the prospects for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1077" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1077:1">Capitaland Commercial Trust (CCT SP)</a> following the company's 2Q18 results.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/prda-ij-prodia-widyahusada-company-visit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22281">PRDA IJ: Prodia Widyahusada - Company Visit</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1763" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1763">Lloyd Moffatt</a> takes a close look at this Indonesian healthcare player. IDX listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23663" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23663:1">Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ)</a> is an Indonesian diagnostic service and medical testing company.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gma7-destiny-changing-dongle" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22250">GMA7: Destiny Changing Dongle</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1006" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006">Henry Soediarko</a> takes a close look at the prospects for Philippines pay-TV player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23035" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23035:1">GMA Network Inc (GMA7 PM)</a>, which he sees benefitting from digitalisation and greater mobile internet usage in the country. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asap-ladies-and-gentleman-start-your-growth-engines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22322">ASAP: Ladies and Gentleman, Start Your Growth Engines</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/965" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965">Country Group</a> initiate coverage on <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/companyprofile.do?ssoPageId=4&amp;symbol=ASAP" target="_blank">ASAP </a>with a BUY rating and a 1H19E target price of Bt6.5 at 24.1x PE, which is 1.0x PEG of the average of the company’s earnings growth for 2019-20E.<h2>Sector and Thematic Insights</h2>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-small-cap-top-movers-buybacks-and-insider-dealing-jun-18" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22184">Asia Small-Cap: Top Movers, Buybacks and Insider Dealing - Jun'18</a>, insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1763" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1763">Lloyd Moffatt</a> gives us his regular survey trading activity in his Asian Small Cap universe. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-donut-dilemma-thailand-takes-on-trans-fats" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22230">The Donut Dilemma: Thailand Takes On Trans-Fats</a>, Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> comments on the news and repercussions from the announcement that the Health Ministry will ban the use of trans-fats in Thailand starting January 8th, 2019.  In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-primary-home-sales-declined-42-in-jun-18" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22197">Singapore Primary Home Sales Declined 42% in Jun 18</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1644" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1644">Vivienne Zhou Jinmiao</a> comments on June's Primary Home sales in Singapore. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thirsty-thailand-major-players-in-the-beverage-industry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22276">Thirsty Thailand: Major Players in the Beverage Industry</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a>  surveys the beverage industry in Thailand and provides us with his views. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/three-levels-of-innovation-in-thai-business" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22291">Three Levels of Innovation in Thai Business</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> takes a fascinating look at innovation in Thailand and how it manifests itself with Thai companies.  In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mckinsey-on-asian-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22343">McKinsey on Asian Insurance</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> takes the book Life Insurance in Asia, which was written by two McKinsey veterans and takes some of their key points and to applies it to the Thai insurance industry.


This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up pieces. Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. 
I also include in the detailed section initial notes from a company visit last week to Sentul City Tbk Pt (BKSL IJ) following a visit to the township and ask the question, "Is this a future Serpong in the making?" 
Macro InsightsIn Indonesian Politics Weekly: Poverty Drops; FMI Financing Questioned; Widodo Polls Well; KPK Arrests political insight provider Kevin O’Rourke comments on the most important news in Indonesian politics over and the last week. In Indonesia: Rumour Mill Going into Overdrive over 2019 Elections, Manu Bhaskaran comments on recent developments surrounding the selection of President Jokowi's running mate for next year's election.  In Singapore: Set for Policy Tightening in Oct 18, Barring Severe Trade Fallout, Jason Tan examines recent economic numbers coming out of Singapore and assesses the likelihood of a monetary tightening at the next policy meeting. In Thailand: Government Measures to Inject Cyclical Growth Impetus, Jason Tan zeros in on the Thai Economy post recent comments from the government on increasing fiscal spending.In Philippine Peso: No Respite in Sight for the Embattled Currency, Nicholas Chia puts forward his views on the Philippine peso. He notes that the economy may be clocking impressive growth rates in recent years, but that has led to burgeoning macroeconomic imbalances that are increasingly under scrutiny.  Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Sari (ROTI): Long-Term Positive But No near Term Catalyst in FY 2018, Henry Soediarko zeros in on Indonesian bread maker Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk Pt (ROTI IJ), which he likes long-term but sees no near-term catalysts.In Arwana Citramulia 2Q18 Update - Improving Product Mix Accelerates Earnings Growth, Lloyd Moffatt provides an update on Indonesia's lowest cost tile manufacturer and continues to take a positive view.  In XL Axiata - Conquering the Provinces, Angus Mackintosh provides an update on the company following a visit in Jakarta. XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL IJ) continues to be the most interesting growth story amongst the Indonesian telcos. In DIGI (DIGI MK) 2Q18 Results Show Continued Revenue Growth on Rising Internet Use., our friends at New Street Research circle back to Digi.Com Bhd (DIGI MK) and find some potential rays of light for the company.  In PLANB: Outdoor Media Leader Eyes Sustainable Growth Platforms, our friends at Country Group zero in on Thai media player Plan B Media Pcl (PLANB TB) and take a positive view. In Astra International Opportunities into a Strategic Low, technical insight provider Thomas Schroeder puts his view on the prospects for Astra International Tbk Pt (ASII IJ).In Wheelock Properties Macro Break Point and Projection Target, Thomas Schroeder provides us with his technical view on Wheelock Properties (S) Ltd (WP SP). He finds Wheelock Properties (S) Ltd (WP SP) chart compelling enough to present some key pivot points in a brief note as well as breakout projection targets.In Wheelock Properties - To Privatise, Travis Lundy presents us with his views on Wheelock Properties (S) Ltd (WP SP) following a series of insights on the company and news that it will privatise. In Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) - Cementing Its Recovery, former Jakartan Angus Mackintosh presents his views on the company following a company visit in Jakarta. He suggests that Arwana Citramulia Tbk Pt (ARNA IJ) continues to be one of the best-managed industrials in Indonesia, with a strong track record of good corporate governance. In Unloved &amp; Undervalued; Adding Golden Agri to Our List of 5-Yr Doubles, Charles Spencer presents us with his views on Golden Agri Resources Ltd (GGR SP). He is adding Golden Agri Resources Ltd (GGR SP) to his list of 5-year doubles.  In Lippo Karawaci: Buying Time To Avert Distress, our friends at Bondcritic initiate coverage on Lippo Karawaci Tbk Pt (LPKR IJ) (“LK”) with a Neutral recommendation on the LPKRIJ complex and a tactical OVERWEIGHT recommendation on LPKRIJ 26s. In Capitaland Commercial Trust: Keep Circumspect in Terms of Valuation, Anni Kum analyses the prospects for Capitaland Commercial Trust (CCT SP) following the company's 2Q18 results.In PRDA IJ: Prodia Widyahusada - Company Visit, Lloyd Moffatt takes a close look at this Indonesian healthcare player. IDX listed Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ) is an Indonesian diagnostic service and medical testing company.In GMA7: Destiny Changing Dongle, Henry Soediarko takes a close look at the prospects for Philippines pay-TV player GMA Network Inc (GMA7 PM), which he sees benefitting from digitalisation and greater mobile internet usage in the country. In ASAP: Ladies and Gentleman, Start Your Growth Engines our friends at Country Group initiate coverage on ASAP with a BUY rating and a 1H19E target price of Bt6.5 at 24.1x PE, which is 1.0x PEG of the average of the company’s earnings growth for 2019-20E.Sector and Thematic InsightsIn Asia Small-Cap: Top Movers, Buybacks and Insider Dealing - Jun'18, insight provider Lloyd Moffatt gives us his regular survey trading activity in his Asian Small Cap universe. In The Donut Dilemma: Thailand Takes On Trans-Fats, Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA comments on the news and repercussions from the announcement that the Health Ministry will ban the use of trans-fats in Thailand starting January 8th, 2019.  In Singapore Primary Home Sales Declined 42% in Jun 18, Vivienne Zhou Jinmiao comments on June's Primary Home sales in Singapore. In Thirsty Thailand: Major Players in the Beverage Industry, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA  surveys the beverage industry in Thailand and provides us with his views. In Three Levels of Innovation in Thai Business, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA takes a fascinating look at innovation in Thailand and how it manifests itself with Thai companies.  In McKinsey on Asian Insurance, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA takes the book Life Insurance in Asia, which was written by two McKinsey veterans and takes some of their key points and to applies it to the Thai insurance industry.  

PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk. (ROTI) (ROTI IJ)

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Policy Tightening, Privatisation, and Thirsty Thailand